Journal of Economic Asymmetries最新文献

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The macroeconomic impact of asymmetric uncertainty shocks

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00410

Henrik Müller , Boris Blagov , Torsten Schmidt , Jonas Rieger , Carsten Jentsch

Political shocks impact the economy in different ways, depending of their nature. To capture these effects effectively, we present the Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) based on German newspaper content. This approach combines the time-inherent stability of simple counts of articles with the thematic openness and flexibility of topic models. Using the dynamic RollingLDA technique facilitates the close-to-real-time identification of both the magnitude of an uncertainty shock and its specific characteristics. Hence, the UPI could prove highly useful for economic forecasters and policymakers, since it renders possible more timely and targeted policy reactions.

Employing a Bayesian VAR approach, we analyze the effects of various UPI shocks on fixed investment and other macroeconomic variables. Our results document the asymmetric nature of uncertainty shocks, as their consequences are dependent on the respective sources of uncertainty. We find that international shocks only have weak effects on the German macroeconomy, while domestic policy shocks prove to be highly significant. These results markedly differ from earlier studies that, in the case of Germany, tend to maintain the opposite.

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引用次数: 0

Asymmetric relationship between diversification and liquidity creation: Empirical evidence from GCC

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00409

Shoaib Ali , Ghulame Rubbaniy , Costas Syriopoulos , Kienpin Tee

This study examines how bank diversification affects liquidity creation by using the bank level data of GCC countries. We use data from 205 banks in GCC over the period of 2005–2019. To test the hypothesized relationship, we employ the GMM methodological framework. The findings of the study reveal that both income and asset diversification adversely affect the narrow and broad measure of banks' liquidity creation. However, funding diversification positively(negatively) influences the broad(narrow) measure of liquidity creation. The results highlight that bank diversification is a double-edged sword; although it can help in reducing risk, but it also vanishes the banks' ability to create liquidity. However, the in-depth and detailed analyses reveal that the impact is asymmetrical across large, small, well-capitalized, and undercapitalized banks. Furthermore, comparing the normal and crisis periods highlights that banks behave differently in different economic conditions. The results have several implications for the bank managers and decision makers; they must consider the trade-off between liquidity creation and level of diversification. Additionally, the asymmetry in results implies that managers must consider the level/bank's specific characteristics while making such strategic decisions.

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引用次数: 0

Can fear of currency appreciation gear up reserve accretion?

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00408

Keerthana Sunny George , M. Ramachandran

This paper investigates whether the Reserve Bank of India's intervention in the foreign exchange market has preference asymmetry and also attempts to find out whether reserve accumulation is significantly an outcome of such an asymmetric intervention. In this regard, we construct quarterly models of reserve demand wherein shocks to rupee appreciation and depreciation with their pace are included to capture the asymmetry in intervention, apart from incorporating certain key control variables as determinants. The econometric estimates obtained from the autoregressive distributed lag model confirm that intervention reflects asymmetric preference; the authority seems to tame rupee appreciation more aggressively than rupee depreciation of the same magnitude. Moreover, the reaction to pace of rupee appreciation is found to be much stronger than to pace of rupee depreciation; thus, providing additional support for the asymmetry in intervention. Further, the empirical results are subjected to robustness check and the evidence remains robust to an alternative definition of reserves. The overall evidence, thus, suggests that there is a fear of currency appreciation, which appears to be one of the important factors behind the large stockpile of reserves in India.

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引用次数: 0

On the use of Malmquist productivity indices for intertemporal performance assessment by means of composite indicators

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00404

Giannis Karagiannis , Panagiotis Ravanos

The family of Malmquist non-parametric productivity indices using either a single constant input or a single constant output is a consistent approach for measuring performance change in terms of composite indicators. In this setting, testing for Hicks-neutral technical change is important, since in its presence the choice among these Malmquist indices is unnecessary, whereas its absence points towards the asymmetric effects of overarching events and policies across the evaluated units. In this paper, we provide an empirical test for Hicks-neutral technical change by relying on recent developments on inference in dynamic nonparametric models of production. We then use it to examine the pattern of technical change in two study cases related to the UNDP Human Development Index and a social inclusion composite indicator. In both cases, country performance change over time is entirely attributed to technical change, which however is economically significant only in the latter case.

引用次数: 0

Fiscal asymmetries under a debt consolidation strategy: Evidence from Colombia

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00405

Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo , Raúl Alberto Chamorro Narváez

This paper develops and implements a fiscal DSGE model tailored to Colombia, a small and open emerging economy (SOEE). The study focuses on the asymmetric effects of fiscal consolidation strategies in this context. The model, constructed as a New-Keynesian DSGE framework, is estimated using Bayesian techniques with data specific to the Colombian economy and relevant external variables. It includes heterogeneous households (Ricardian and non-Ricardian), domestic producers of final and intermediate goods, importers, exporters, and a national government responsible for fiscal policy and a central bank responsible for monetary policy. Key frictions such as the formation of consumption habits, capital stock utilization, risk-adjusted uncovered interest rate parity, and price and wage rigidities are also included. The results suggest that fiscal multipliers vary significantly depending on the fiscal instrument used, with spending cuts having a more contractionary effect on output than tax increases. Moreover, consolidation measures fall severely on non-Ricardian households, exacerbating income inequality. The model highlights fiscal asymmetries, showing that sectors more dependent on public spending face contractions under fiscal consolidation. These findings provide valuable insights into the dynamics of fiscal and monetary policy in SOEEs and serve as an important tool for policy analysis and economic forecasting in emerging markets such as Colombia.

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引用次数: 0

Is the response of the Slovak labor market asymmetric to output changes?

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00403

Renáta Pitoňáková , Rudolf Kucharčík , Ladislav Kabát

The accession to the European Union, several external shocks, and the questionable state interventions in the country's business environment significantly impacted economic development of Slovakia. These phenomena were reflected in both the economic and social situation, namely the level of Gross domestic product (GDP) and rate of unemployment. The goal of our paper is to analyze the possible asymmetries in the unemployment-output relationship according to the Okun's law. We used quarterly data to apply static and dynamic models in their symmetric and asymmetric forms (2009 Q1 – 2023 Q3). The results suggest that the labor market reacts more noticeably to GDP contraction than to GDP expansion. The outcomes are of interest to governing bodies managing labor market policy, primarily in the economic downturn, and for banks in controlling interest rates and inflation.

引用次数: 0

The asymmetric impact of fiscal decentralization on ecological footprint-accounting for methodological refinements and globalization facets

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00400

Atrayee Choudhury , Sohini Sahu

In the wake of global climate change, this study tries to reconcile the competing evidence on the fiscal decentralization–environmental sustainability nexus by examining the impact of the regional authority index, a comprehensive index of decentralization, on ecological footprint - a novel and composite indicator of environmental sustainability. Using novel econometric techniques to account for potential asymmetry and endogeneity issues, such as the dynamic panel threshold methodology, and quantile techniques, on a sample of 53 countries over two decades, we find robust evidence that the effect is non-linear and conditional on the degree of fiscal decentralization. Decentralization exerts a favourable impact on ecological footprint in lower regime countries owing to positive externalities, while the adverse impact of the same is observed in higher regime countries due to the “race to the bottom” phenomenon. Furthermore, the mediating channels of political and financial globalization weaken the positive externalities spillover, whereas social and cultural globalization mitigates the “race to the bottom” effect, addressing the on-going debate about the trade-off between globalization and environmental sustainability. The effective mitigation of climate change impacts under sub-national governance is thus conditioned by an optimal mix of decentralization policies at the ground level, backed by global exchange of socio-cultural policies promoting ecological awareness.

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引用次数: 0

Macroeconomic asymmetries and their influence on fintech ecosystem growth: A global and regional perspective

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00399

Hassnian Ali , Ahmet Faruk Aysan

This study examines the asymmetric macroeconomic factors influencing the formation and growth of fintech ecosystems across 103 countries from 2005 to 2022, offering both global and regional perspectives. Using a fixed-effects negative binomial regression model as the primary methodology, the research identifies key macroeconomic drivers—such as GDP per capita, inflation, financial development, and real interest rates—whose impacts on fintech formation vary significantly across regions. Additionally, an adapted Asymmetric Error Correction Model (AECM) for count panel data is employed as a supplementary analysis to capture the differential effects of positive and negative changes in macroeconomic variables. The findings reveal how global crises, including the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic, have unevenly disrupted fintech growth, exposing regional vulnerabilities and opportunities. Europe's fintech expansion is primarily driven by investments in education and human capital, while Asia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are more responsive to macroeconomic stability. In contrast, African fintech ecosystems rely heavily on financial development to foster growth. Robustness checks with lagged variables further validate the temporal effects of these drivers, emphasizing their long-term implications. By exploring the role of macroeconomic asymmetries in shaping fintech ecosystems, this study provides critical insights for policymakers and investors aiming to enhance resilience and foster sustainable growth tailored to the distinct economic environments of each region.

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引用次数: 0

Alternative monetary policy rules in an imperfectly competitive DSGE model with asymmetric price adjustment

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00397

George Alogoskoufis, Stelios Giannoulakis

In this paper we study optimal central bank interest rate policy, and compare it to interest rate rules, such as the Wicksell (1898), Fisher (1919) and Taylor (1993) rules, in an imperfectly competitive DSGE model of aggregate fluctuations. We demonstrate that in versions of the model with full price and wage adjustment, or staggered price-setting, the optimal policy rule is the Fisher rule of absolute inflation stabilization. We also analyze a version of the model with exogenous inflation shocks and asymmetric price adjustment, in which the “divine coincidence” does not apply. In this case, the optimal monetary policy rule takes the form of a Taylor rule, the parameters of which depend on the structural and policy parameters of the model.

引用次数: 0

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on gender labor market asymmetries in Germany

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00396

Timo Baas

The Corona pandemic affected life and working conditions around the world. Some could work from home, some had to risk their lives at the workplace, and some got laid off. The selection of employees to one of these groups, however, was asymmetric about gender. More than 63 percent of employees providing services in Germany are female; females in health professions account for more than 75 percent, and in social professions, including daycare, the share of female employees is at 84 percent. These occupations were in high demand during the pandemic and cannot be practiced at home. Since women do more than 62 percent of housework and childcare, the high demand for female work creates a dilemma. While family obligations increased as childcare facilities and schools closed, women had to decide whether to remain or drop out of the labor market. In this paper’s estimated DSGE model, these choices are addressed by allowing for asymmetries in participation decisions and disutility of effort for male and female workers. While at the beginning of the pandemic, female employment increased relative to male, an increase in disutility drove females out of the labor market during the second lockdown. Instead, predominantly males entered, and females reacted to this increase by staying absent. This pattern resembles previous findings on historical pandemics and, in the literature, is called “the added worker effect.”

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引用次数: 0

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