Assessment of the energy-saving and environment effects of China's gasoline vehicle withdrawal under the impact of geopolitical risks

Abstract

With the increasing number of geopolitical events, energy and economy have been affected in all regions of the world. Uncertain geopolitical risks have led to the instability of the energy supply chain, thus affecting the future planning of fuel vehicles. Accordingly, the environmental effects of “Banning gasoline vehicle sales policy” (BGVSP) will also be affected by geopolitical risks. Therefore, using life-cycle assessment and the Lotka–Volterra model, this study evaluated the environmental effects of BGVSP in terms of energy consumption, carbon emissions, human toxic potential (HTP), global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), air quality potential (AQP), and photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP). We further analyzed the effects of differences in policy timing on the energy-conservation and emission-reduction benefits of BGVSP under multiple scenarios. The results show that the implementation of BGVSP in 2025 reduces the energy consumption, carbon emissions, GWP and POCP of the Chinese passenger vehicle market by 17.2%, 18.6%, 17.9% and 46.2%, respectively. However, it may also enhance HTP, AQP, and AP impact by 5.3%, 5.6%, and 18.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, lightweight automobile development could also help reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions in the passenger vehicle market. In this situation, the environmental effects of BGVSP implementation are superimposed. Moreover, the emission-reduction effect of new-energy vehicles is linked to the energy structure in terms of the whole life cycle; thus, the environmental effect of BGVSP in the context of energy cleaning is “super additive”. Regarding environmental effects, 2030 would be the optimal time for China to implement BGVSP as it transitions to clean energy.