Taliban 2.0 and US National Security Policy in Afghanistan

Abstract

This article examines from the point of view of the US national security policy, the causes and contexts for the US exit from Afghanistan and the factors that will influence the US policy in Afghanistan in the coming decade. It reviews the logic behind post-9/11 US ‘grand strategy’ and the evolution of the US national security policy in this period, which included the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan. It examines the evolution of the US deployment and factors which complicated the US strategic objectives in Afghanistan, including the persistent tension in the US national security objectives between counter-terrorism and nation-building objectives. It argues that the US faces limited palatable options regarding its post-withdrawal Afghanistan policy and that moving forward, policy will be constrained by a mix of situational and structural variables. These include US domestic politics, the Taliban regime itself (and its relationship with ISIS-K) and the region’s geopolitical winds, notably the strategic positions of Iran, Pakistan, China and to a lesser extent Russia.