Emerging technology and nuclear security: What does the wisdom of the crowd tell us?

IF 4 1区社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI:10.1080/13523260.2021.1928963

M. Onderco, Madeline Zutt

引用次数: 5

Abstract

ABSTRACT What is the impact of emerging technologies on nuclear security and disarmament? Current rapid technological advances are taking place against the backdrop of increased investments in modernizing nuclear arsenals, rising tensions among great powers, and increased pressure on nuclear arms control agreements. Yet, the anticipated net effect of these emerging technologies on the nuclear landscape remains ambiguous. Through a survey with 85 experts and a series of elite interviews with 14 decision-makers, this article contends that while emerging technologies destabilize nuclear deterrence by increasing nuclear risk, they can also create fresh opportunities for nuclear disarmament. Given that new technologies are changing the nature of nuclear threats, this article also argues that we need to change the way we think about arms control if we want to respond effectively to the threats posed by emerging technologies.

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新兴技术与核安全:大众智慧告诉我们什么?

新兴技术对核安全和裁军有何影响?当前的快速技术进步是在对核武库现代化的投资增加、大国之间的紧张局势加剧以及对核军备控制协议的压力增加的背景下发生的。然而，这些新兴技术对核能前景的预期净影响仍然模糊不清。通过对85名专家的调查和对14名决策者的一系列精英访谈，本文认为，虽然新兴技术通过增加核风险来破坏核威慑的稳定，但它们也可以为核裁军创造新的机会。鉴于新技术正在改变核威胁的性质，本文还认为，如果我们想要有效应对新兴技术构成的威胁，我们需要改变对军备控制的看法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Contemporary Security Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

14.60

自引率

6.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： One of the oldest peer-reviewed journals in international conflict and security, Contemporary Security Policy promotes theoretically-based research on policy problems of armed conflict, intervention and conflict resolution. Since it first appeared in 1980, CSP has established its unique place as a meeting ground for research at the nexus of theory and policy. Spanning the gap between academic and policy approaches, CSP offers policy analysts a place to pursue fundamental issues, and academic writers a venue for addressing policy. Major fields of concern include: War and armed conflict Peacekeeping Conflict resolution Arms control and disarmament Defense policy Strategic culture International institutions. CSP is committed to a broad range of intellectual perspectives. Articles promote new analytical approaches, iconoclastic interpretations and previously overlooked perspectives. Its pages encourage novel contributions and outlooks, not particular methodologies or policy goals. Its geographical scope is worldwide and includes security challenges in Europe, Africa, the Middle-East and Asia. Authors are encouraged to examine established priorities in innovative ways and to apply traditional methods to new problems.