Simulation of development of individual heavy industry sectors

IF 0.6 Q4 BUSINESS Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics Pub Date : 2021-03-31 DOI:10.17323/2587-814X.2021.1.59.77

E. Kislitsyn, V. Gorodnichev

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Nowadays, in the context of the coronavirus crisis, the issue of ensuring the sustainable development of heavy industries is acute However, theoretical and analytical researches alone are not sufficient for this, and economic science needs to develop fundamentally new approaches to the study of the development of industrial sectors This article is devoted to the creation and testing of a simulation model for the development of individual sectors of the economy The object of research is the metallurgical industry, as well as related ore mining, mechanical engineering and production of finished metal products The theoretical basis of the research is a systematic approach that combines the theory of industry markets, economic growth, industrial economics, system dynamics and mathematical economics The main research methods used are system analysis, statistical analysis to identify trends in changes in the main economic indicators, econometric modeling to build production functions, as well as mathematical modeling of macroeconomic systems As a result, a simulation model developed in system dynamics notation is proposed, which makes it possible to evaluate the development of individual industries taking into account various changes This model is built on the basis of the three-sector model of the national economy, where separate adjacent industries connected by dynamic feedback loops are identified as structural elements The paper details the structure of the simulation model based on first-order dynamic equations, balance equations and nonlinear production functions The simulation model allowed us to predict a number of scenarios for the development of metallurgical industries, taking into account changes in the labor force and investment in fixed assets The results of the work can be used for forming proposals on industrial policy, monitoring the condition and efficiency of individual industries © 2021 National Research University, Higher School of Econoimics All rights reserved

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单个重工业部门发展的模拟

如今，在冠状病毒危机的背景下，确保重工业可持续发展的问题十分突出。然而，仅凭理论和分析研究还不够，经济科学需要开发出研究工业部门发展的全新方法本文致力于创建和测试单个经济部门发展的模拟模型。研究对象是冶金行业以及相关的采矿业，机械工程和金属成品生产本研究的理论基础是一种系统的方法，结合了行业市场、经济增长、工业经济学、系统动力学和数学经济学的理论。主要研究方法是系统分析、统计分析，以确定主要经济指标的变化趋势，建立生产函数的计量经济建模，以及宏观经济系统的数学建模。因此，提出了一个以系统动力学表示法开发的模拟模型，该模型可以在考虑各种变化的情况下评估单个行业的发展。该模型是在国民经济三部门模型的基础上建立的，其中通过动态反馈回路连接的独立相邻行业被识别为结构元素。本文详细介绍了基于一阶动力学方程、平衡方程和非线性生产函数的模拟模型的结构。模拟模型使我们能够预测冶金行业发展的多个场景，考虑劳动力和固定资产投资的变化工作结果可用于制定产业政策建议，监测单个行业的状况和效率©2021国立研究型大学高等经济学院保留所有权利

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Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics BUSINESS-

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