VULNERABILIDADE E INCIDÊNCIA DA COVID-19 NO NORDESTE DO BRASIL ATRAVÉS DA ANÁLISE DE CLUSTER

Abstract

COVID-19 has become an epidemic of global proportion. The increased susceptibility to the spread of the disease and mortality is related to sociodemographic factors and underlying chronic morbidities. The disease has a great social and economic impact directly affecting people's health and, consequently, the world of the work. The objective of this study was to create profiles of demographic vulnerability and morbidity to the incidence of COVID-19 for municipalities in northeastern Brazil (NEB). The data are from IBGE and Ministry of Health and the variables are: demographic density, urbanization rate, percentage of elderly over 60 years and hospitalizations from 2015 to 2019 – Tuberculosis, AIDS, Diabetes, Obesity and Asthma. Cluster analysis was used to identify similarity patterns between NEB municipalities. The vulnerability is presented in four clusters: low, moderate, high, and critical. Heterogeneity Recebido em: 23/06/2020 Aceito para publicação em: 06/08/2020. Vulnerabilidade e incidência da Covid-19 no nordeste do Brasil através da análise de Cluster Marcelo Luís de Amorim Souza Thiago Valentim Marques Maria Marla Paiva de Amorim DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14393/Hygeia16055649 Hygeia v.16 p. 232 248, 2020 página 233 was observed in the distribution of clusters with high and critical vulnerabilities in the capitals, except Aracaju (SE). Most of the municipalities in each state presented moderate vulnerability. The "critical vulnerability" presented high demographic density, high urbanization rate, high percentage of elderly over 60 years and high number of hospitalizations of people with asthma, obesity, AIDS, tuberculosis and diabetes. The "low vulnerability" was constituted, mostly, by municipalities with low population density, low urbanization and low number of hospitalizations corresponding to the selected diseases, with the percentage of elderly over 60 years being the second highest. The results may contribute to reflect on public policies to combat outbreaks and social protection.