Annual course of temperature and precipitation as proximal predictors of birds’ responses to climatic changes on the species and community level

Abstract

Abstract The study was conducted in the landscapes of south-eastern Ukraine during the nesting seasons 1988–2018. Within the landscape system associated with the Molochny Estuary, the ten most important ecosystem types were investigated, including the following: agricultural land, vegetated strips, meadows, islands and spits, reedbeds, urban areas, salt marshes, steppe, cliffs, artificial forests. Bird species responded to temperature and precipitation gradients. The patterns of responses were presented using Huisman, Olff and Fresco expanded by the Jansen-Oksanen hierarchical models. The nature of species response in the gradient of temperature or precipitation conditions depends on the type of particular ecosystem and is not uniform for all populations inhabiting the different landscape types. The bird communities were revealed to demonstrate an abrupt dynamic over time. The continuous changes in community structure initiated by the external environmental factors are combined with modifications of internal biotic interactions, which may lead to abrupt reorganization of the community.