{"title":"Forecasting Tourism in the EU after the COVID-19 Crisis","authors":"Ulrich Gunter, E. Smeral, Bozana Zekan","doi":"10.1177/10963480221125130","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has restricted both business and social life over the last two years. Stop-and-go policies enacted as containment measures have further impacted the global economy, and tourism in particular. Tourism demand shows only weak signs of a sustainable recovery. The medium-term outlook remains highly uncertain, and yet few studies have addressed the development of the tourism and leisure industries in the years ahead. In this context, we forecast demand in selected EU countries in terms of total expenditure on outbound travel (tourism imports) using a panel pooled Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) approach. Baseline and downside scenarios are elaborated to project demand for foreign travel until 2025.","PeriodicalId":51409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"6","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/10963480221125130","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has restricted both business and social life over the last two years. Stop-and-go policies enacted as containment measures have further impacted the global economy, and tourism in particular. Tourism demand shows only weak signs of a sustainable recovery. The medium-term outlook remains highly uncertain, and yet few studies have addressed the development of the tourism and leisure industries in the years ahead. In this context, we forecast demand in selected EU countries in terms of total expenditure on outbound travel (tourism imports) using a panel pooled Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) approach. Baseline and downside scenarios are elaborated to project demand for foreign travel until 2025.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research (JHTR) is an international scholarly research journal that publishes high-quality, refereed articles that advance the knowledge base of the hospitality and tourism field. JHTR focuses on original research, both conceptual and empirical, that clearly contributes to the theoretical development of our field. The word contribution is key. Simple applications of theories from other disciplines to a hospitality or tourism context are not encouraged unless the authors clearly state why this context significantly advances theory or knowledge. JHTR encourages research based on a variety of methods, qualitative and quantitative.
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