Scenarios for the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels in Australia in the absence of CO2 removal

Abstract

ABSTRACT The rapid growth of renewable electricity generation in Australia raises the prospect of substituting for all fossil fuel use, including their use in transport and heating, by 2050 or even 2040. This article uses simple scenarios to identify the combinations of trends in total final energy consumption and renewable energy generation that together could result in the complete substitution of renewable energy for fossil fuels for energy generation by 2040 and 2050. It finds that, at current or increasing levels of energy consumption, in the absence of substantial CO2 removal, it is very unlikely that renewable energy could substitute for all fossil energy consumption by 2040 and 2050, even if renewable energy grows exponentially. Because time is of the essence in addressing the climate crisis, energy consumption must be reduced substantially while transitioning to renewables.