Contribution of specific age groups and classes of death causes to the life expectancy of the population of the Novosibirsk Region

Abstract

Introduction. Life expectancy is an important public health criterion. An assessment of its trend, taking into account the contribution of individual causes of death, makes it possible to form a healthcare strategy at the regional level. The purpose of the investigation was to study the contribution of individual age groups and leading classes of death causes to the trend of the life expectancy for 2005–2020, the elimination reserves of the life expectancy of the population of the Novosibirsk Region in 2020. Material and methods. The calculations were based on mortality rates by gender, five-year age groups, and causes of death from the Russian Database on Fertility and Mortality of the Center for Demographic Research of the Russian Economic School. The methods of constructing brief tables of mortality, linear approximation, and the method of components were used to calculate the contribution of spesific age groups and causes of death to the trend of the life expectancy and its elimination reserves. Results. The increase in life expectancy in the Novosibirsk region during the study period took place in 2 stages. In 2005-2009 the growth of the indicator was largely ensured by reducing the mortality of people of working age, especially men, from external causes. Further increase in life expectancy in 2009–2019 associated with a decrease in mortality of people older than working age, in particular women from diseases of the circulatory system. In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic contributed to a decline in the life expectancy for men to the level of 2015, and for women until 2011. Limitations. Territorial, temporary. The trend in the life expectancy of men and women of the Novosibirsk Region for 2005–2020 was studied. Conclusion. When developing federal, regional socio-demographic programs, and planning the work of the healthcare system, it is necessary to take into account the identified features of the trend of mortality, life expectancy, and reserves for its increase. Particular attention should be paid to increasing the availability of medical care and programs for the health-saving behaviour spesific of the population.