Explaining Investors' Fixation on Increasing Revenue: An Experimental Investigation of the Differential Reaction to Revenues versus Expenses*

Abstract

Prior research has demonstrated that investors have differential reactions to revenue increases versus expense decreases in firms with positive earnings surprises. We use the experimental method to explain how this differential reaction is, at least in part, due to a heuristic-like process in investors' decision-making processes. Critical to our study, we further demonstrate that when revenue increases explain even a small portion of that surprise, investors make more positive judgments about the firm than one might expect. This somewhat surprising result occurs even though those same investors provide similar earnings forecasts for the next period, indicating that our results are not entirely caused by differential judgments regarding the persistence of the earnings surprise. These findings are consistent with the halo effect, a phenomenon described in psychology literature in which, when making evaluations, one's focus on a certain salient factor impacts assessments regarding other factors. This article helps to explain some of the complexities with individual investor behavior when evaluating the impact of changes in revenues and expenses. Specifically, investors' preference for revenue increases as compared to expense decreases is partially caused by biases that are not obvious to investors, making it difficult for them to adjust for these biases.