What drives Japanese regional elections? Multilevel factors and partisan independents

Abstract

ABSTRACT Unlike in most Western European countries from which various explanatory models for regional elections have emerged, Japanese regional elections have been characterized by a relatively high number of and vote share for independent (non-partisan) candidates. The extensive vote share for non-partisan (independent) candidates – many who are in fact affiliated or members of statewide parties – at regional as opposed to national level is the main cause of divergence in electoral results between the two levels. In this election report for Japan’s 2019 prefectural-level legislative elections, we try to explain the reasons for the prevalence of these independents in general, their increasing vote share over the past decade, and how they fit into existing models explaining regional voting. We do this by analysing the 2019 regional elections from institutional and historical perspective.