Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.1080/13597566.2023.2240234
Rodney A. Smith, L. Mansillo, A. Brown
ABSTRACT Recent research is ambiguous about the status of Australian regional elections, seeing them as conforming to the second-order election model but also as affected by regional politics. We clarify this ambiguity, drawing on aggregate and individual level data to explore the variable impact of national and regional incumbents on regional elections. Although national incumbents seem to affect Australian regional elections, under some circumstances regional incumbent parties are able to electorally outperform their national incumbent counterparts. We suggest that Australia’s uncoordinated national and regional election cycles and federal distribution of policy responsibilities both help to focus voter attention on the performance of regional incumbents. The way that regional incumbents manage key policy issues, including Covid-19 in recent years, appears to matter for their electoral support, making Australian regional elections more than second-order events.
{"title":"Australian state and territory elections: regional incumbents matter","authors":"Rodney A. Smith, L. Mansillo, A. Brown","doi":"10.1080/13597566.2023.2240234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2023.2240234","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Recent research is ambiguous about the status of Australian regional elections, seeing them as conforming to the second-order election model but also as affected by regional politics. We clarify this ambiguity, drawing on aggregate and individual level data to explore the variable impact of national and regional incumbents on regional elections. Although national incumbents seem to affect Australian regional elections, under some circumstances regional incumbent parties are able to electorally outperform their national incumbent counterparts. We suggest that Australia’s uncoordinated national and regional election cycles and federal distribution of policy responsibilities both help to focus voter attention on the performance of regional incumbents. The way that regional incumbents manage key policy issues, including Covid-19 in recent years, appears to matter for their electoral support, making Australian regional elections more than second-order events.","PeriodicalId":46657,"journal":{"name":"Regional and Federal Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42770544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-31DOI: 10.1080/13597566.2023.2241014
A. Schakel, Valentyna Romanova
ABSTRACT In this introduction to the sixth annual review of regional elections we identify three generations of regional election studies that have applied the second-order election (SOE) model. First-generation literature finds that regional authority, territorial cleavages, and election (non-)simultaneity explain territorial heterogeneity in SOE-effects because they affect ‘what is at stake’ in a regional election. A ‘stake-based’ approach also underlies a second-generation literature that finds that voters with strong regional identities and who find regional government important are more likely to make distinct party choices in the regional electoral arena. Third-generation research adopts a multilevel electoral system perspective and considers the impact of political-institutional variables on the extent of horizontal and vertical top-down and bottom-up spill-over between regional and national electoral arenas. Four election articles and four election reports make important contributions to the three generations of literature and thereby reveal that these generations of regional election scholarship remain highly relevant.
{"title":"Moving beyond the second-order election model?","authors":"A. Schakel, Valentyna Romanova","doi":"10.1080/13597566.2023.2241014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2023.2241014","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT\u0000 In this introduction to the sixth annual review of regional elections we identify three generations of regional election studies that have applied the second-order election (SOE) model. First-generation literature finds that regional authority, territorial cleavages, and election (non-)simultaneity explain territorial heterogeneity in SOE-effects because they affect ‘what is at stake’ in a regional election. A ‘stake-based’ approach also underlies a second-generation literature that finds that voters with strong regional identities and who find regional government important are more likely to make distinct party choices in the regional electoral arena. Third-generation research adopts a multilevel electoral system perspective and considers the impact of political-institutional variables on the extent of horizontal and vertical top-down and bottom-up spill-over between regional and national electoral arenas. Four election articles and four election reports make important contributions to the three generations of literature and thereby reveal that these generations of regional election scholarship remain highly relevant.","PeriodicalId":46657,"journal":{"name":"Regional and Federal Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48825362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-06DOI: 10.1080/13597566.2023.2227952
J. Griffiths, R. Wyn Jones, E. G. Poole, J. Larner, A. Henderson, F. McMillan
ABSTRACT Despite an extraordinary degree of political turbulence in the UK, the 2021 Scottish and Welsh election results were remarkably similar to those recorded at the previous elections in 2016. While this period spanned the 2016 EU referendum, Britain’s exit from the EU, and the coronavirus pandemic, these upheavals appear to have had little impact on devolved election results. From a comparative perspective, however, such continuity only underlines the extent to which these nations’ political trajectories have diverged since the establishment of devolution in 1999. Using individual-level survey data from twelve election studies over two decades, we show how changing patterns in the relationship between national identity and party support have driven these differing trajectories. In doing so, we provide the first comparative analysis of voting over time in both countries. Additionally, we show how national identity helps to sustain single-party dominance in Scotland and Wales.
{"title":"Diverging electoral fortunes in Scotland and Wales: national identities, national interests, and voting behavior","authors":"J. Griffiths, R. Wyn Jones, E. G. Poole, J. Larner, A. Henderson, F. McMillan","doi":"10.1080/13597566.2023.2227952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2023.2227952","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Despite an extraordinary degree of political turbulence in the UK, the 2021 Scottish and Welsh election results were remarkably similar to those recorded at the previous elections in 2016. While this period spanned the 2016 EU referendum, Britain’s exit from the EU, and the coronavirus pandemic, these upheavals appear to have had little impact on devolved election results. From a comparative perspective, however, such continuity only underlines the extent to which these nations’ political trajectories have diverged since the establishment of devolution in 1999. Using individual-level survey data from twelve election studies over two decades, we show how changing patterns in the relationship between national identity and party support have driven these differing trajectories. In doing so, we provide the first comparative analysis of voting over time in both countries. Additionally, we show how national identity helps to sustain single-party dominance in Scotland and Wales.","PeriodicalId":46657,"journal":{"name":"Regional and Federal Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44492560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-03DOI: 10.1080/13597566.2023.2195639
M. Haman, M. Školník
ABSTRACT This report focuses on Peru’s 2018 regional elections. It analyzes the election results from two perspectives. First, it examines how these elections fit the characteristics of second-order elections. Second, it discusses regional movements and their institutionalization. Although the concept of second-order elections expects these elections to have lower turnout and more invalid votes, this has not happened in Peru’s regional elections: the number of invalid votes in the regional elections is considerably lower than in national congressional elections. However, the assumption that voters punish the ruling parties and vote for smaller parties in these elections was fulfilled. In the elections, the major national parties completely failed, and regional movements celebrated significant successes, winning 15 of the 25 regions. However, the report shows that successful regional movements are not strongly institutionalized in the regional party systems.
{"title":"National political parties or regional movements? The case of Peru’s 2018 regional elections","authors":"M. Haman, M. Školník","doi":"10.1080/13597566.2023.2195639","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2023.2195639","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This report focuses on Peru’s 2018 regional elections. It analyzes the election results from two perspectives. First, it examines how these elections fit the characteristics of second-order elections. Second, it discusses regional movements and their institutionalization. Although the concept of second-order elections expects these elections to have lower turnout and more invalid votes, this has not happened in Peru’s regional elections: the number of invalid votes in the regional elections is considerably lower than in national congressional elections. However, the assumption that voters punish the ruling parties and vote for smaller parties in these elections was fulfilled. In the elections, the major national parties completely failed, and regional movements celebrated significant successes, winning 15 of the 25 regions. However, the report shows that successful regional movements are not strongly institutionalized in the regional party systems.","PeriodicalId":46657,"journal":{"name":"Regional and Federal Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41671503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-23DOI: 10.1080/13597566.2023.2189241
Laura B. Stephenson, Allison Harell
ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic has created yet another dimension of performance on which governments can be judged during elections. This article focuses on how the pandemic and its management factored into vote choices in provincial elections in Canada. Did pandemic considerations overwhelm other factors, or was it a tangential consideration? We address this question with data from a series of two-wave election surveys that were conducted by the Consortium on Electoral Democracy (C-Dem) using online samples of citizens.
{"title":"Blame, hope, or gratitude? Voting decisions during the pandemic","authors":"Laura B. Stephenson, Allison Harell","doi":"10.1080/13597566.2023.2189241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2023.2189241","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic has created yet another dimension of performance on which governments can be judged during elections. This article focuses on how the pandemic and its management factored into vote choices in provincial elections in Canada. Did pandemic considerations overwhelm other factors, or was it a tangential consideration? We address this question with data from a series of two-wave election surveys that were conducted by the Consortium on Electoral Democracy (C-Dem) using online samples of citizens.","PeriodicalId":46657,"journal":{"name":"Regional and Federal Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47525072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-01DOI: 10.1080/13597566.2023.2179040
Linda Basile
ABSTRACT This study investigates how disparities in the distribution of economic, social, and institutional capital across territories affect voter turnout. Analysis of Italian regional elections held from 2003 to 2021 reveals that electoral participation is higher in more economically developed regions than in less developed ones. However, the effect of economic conditions becomes more tangible in territories featuring high levels of social interconnectedness, whilst the institutional capital does not have a significant effect on electoral participation. By showing that voter turnout depends on the interaction between social and economic factors, this study indicates the need for a holistic approach to encouraging political participation, combining long and short-term strategies addressing territories’ societal and economic assets. Another important implication of this article is that ‘context matters’ also at the subnational level. This suggests that future work on turnout should rely more on comparisons across territories within countries.
{"title":"Political equality in unequal territories: the impact of territorial inequalities on voter turnout in Italy’s regional elections","authors":"Linda Basile","doi":"10.1080/13597566.2023.2179040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2023.2179040","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study investigates how disparities in the distribution of economic, social, and institutional capital across territories affect voter turnout. Analysis of Italian regional elections held from 2003 to 2021 reveals that electoral participation is higher in more economically developed regions than in less developed ones. However, the effect of economic conditions becomes more tangible in territories featuring high levels of social interconnectedness, whilst the institutional capital does not have a significant effect on electoral participation. By showing that voter turnout depends on the interaction between social and economic factors, this study indicates the need for a holistic approach to encouraging political participation, combining long and short-term strategies addressing territories’ societal and economic assets. Another important implication of this article is that ‘context matters’ also at the subnational level. This suggests that future work on turnout should rely more on comparisons across territories within countries.","PeriodicalId":46657,"journal":{"name":"Regional and Federal Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45921420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-08DOI: 10.1080/13597566.2023.2175351
Florent Gougou
ABSTRACT Re-election of all incumbent Presidents, most of them from the Socialist Party (PS) or the Republicans (LR), was the main feature of the French regional elections of 20 and 27 June 2021. As a result, regional government remained controlled by the two parties that have dominated French politics since the early 1980s, even though both lost the 2017 presidential and legislative elections to newcomer Emmanuel Macron. The second-order elections model captures part of these dynamics, but the candidate-centered politics model provides a more appropriate framework to understand the general pattern of these regional elections. In a context of increasing split-ticket voting between regional and departmental elections, which were held at the same time, an era of divided government seems to have emerged since 2017.
{"title":"The 2021 French regional elections: beyond second-order effects","authors":"Florent Gougou","doi":"10.1080/13597566.2023.2175351","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2023.2175351","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT\u0000 Re-election of all incumbent Presidents, most of them from the Socialist Party (PS) or the Republicans (LR), was the main feature of the French regional elections of 20 and 27 June 2021. As a result, regional government remained controlled by the two parties that have dominated French politics since the early 1980s, even though both lost the 2017 presidential and legislative elections to newcomer Emmanuel Macron. The second-order elections model captures part of these dynamics, but the candidate-centered politics model provides a more appropriate framework to understand the general pattern of these regional elections. In a context of increasing split-ticket voting between regional and departmental elections, which were held at the same time, an era of divided government seems to have emerged since 2017.","PeriodicalId":46657,"journal":{"name":"Regional and Federal Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46391292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-07DOI: 10.1080/13597566.2022.2152441
I. Székely
ABSTRACT The report discusses the main features of Romania’s county councils, the context and results of their election in 2020, and addresses some theoretical questions raised earlier in the annual reviews of regional elections. It confirms the argument that Romania’s subnational elections have a significant forecasting (barometer) potential: in 2020 their results correctly indicated that no facile right-wing victory was to be expected at the parliamentary elections. The nationalization of the main parties and of the party system is also assessed. Analyzing electoral results in a longer time perspective reveals that most (though not all) counties are strongholds of one of the main political camps, which brings Romania close to an aggregated (as opposed to a replicated) party system at the national level. While this sets limits to party system nationalization, of the other sources formerly contributing to the regionalization of the vote only the Hungarian ethnic parties maintained their relevance in 2020.
{"title":"The 2020 county elections in Romania: More nationalization, less regionalization","authors":"I. Székely","doi":"10.1080/13597566.2022.2152441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2022.2152441","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT\u0000 The report discusses the main features of Romania’s county councils, the context and results of their election in 2020, and addresses some theoretical questions raised earlier in the annual reviews of regional elections. It confirms the argument that Romania’s subnational elections have a significant forecasting (barometer) potential: in 2020 their results correctly indicated that no facile right-wing victory was to be expected at the parliamentary elections. The nationalization of the main parties and of the party system is also assessed. Analyzing electoral results in a longer time perspective reveals that most (though not all) counties are strongholds of one of the main political camps, which brings Romania close to an aggregated (as opposed to a replicated) party system at the national level. While this sets limits to party system nationalization, of the other sources formerly contributing to the regionalization of the vote only the Hungarian ethnic parties maintained their relevance in 2020.","PeriodicalId":46657,"journal":{"name":"Regional and Federal Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47363120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-15DOI: 10.1080/13597566.2022.2146673
Josip Glaurdić, L. Fel
ABSTRACT The 2021 county elections in Croatia were the perfect example of political change amidst continuity. Relatively new parties and independent candidates made significant inroads against the dominant players of the center-right and the center-left, most notably in the capital city of Zagreb, where a novel leftist political platform won the elections conclusively. The rise of new and credible alternatives resulted in increased fragmentation of the county assemblies and likely more unstable regional governments in the near future. On the other hand, the party that has dominated Croatian politics since independence, Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), continued that dominance on the county-level by winning 15 out of 21 offices of county prefects. More important, the determinants of electoral support for the principal political blocs have remained unchanged from the pattern observed in all national elections since the end of Croatia’s War of Independence more than two and a half decades ago.
{"title":"Structural stability despite increased fragmentation: The 2021 county elections in Croatia","authors":"Josip Glaurdić, L. Fel","doi":"10.1080/13597566.2022.2146673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2022.2146673","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The 2021 county elections in Croatia were the perfect example of political change amidst continuity. Relatively new parties and independent candidates made significant inroads against the dominant players of the center-right and the center-left, most notably in the capital city of Zagreb, where a novel leftist political platform won the elections conclusively. The rise of new and credible alternatives resulted in increased fragmentation of the county assemblies and likely more unstable regional governments in the near future. On the other hand, the party that has dominated Croatian politics since independence, Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), continued that dominance on the county-level by winning 15 out of 21 offices of county prefects. More important, the determinants of electoral support for the principal political blocs have remained unchanged from the pattern observed in all national elections since the end of Croatia’s War of Independence more than two and a half decades ago.","PeriodicalId":46657,"journal":{"name":"Regional and Federal Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47480242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-30DOI: 10.1080/13597566.2022.2103546
A. Schakel, Valentyna Romanova
ABSTRACT In this introduction, we set out to analyse the relationship between regional elections and regional authority and the extent to which regional elections are held free and fair. We hypothesize that the incentives to interfere increase when regions exercise more authority but the possibilities to interfere decline when the regional executive is elected. A quantitative analysis confirms that directly elected and stronger regional bodies make them more attractive for central meddling, but the presence of elected executives makes central interference less likely. We zoom-in on nine electoral autocracies that have featured in the past five annual reviews of regional elections to explore how regional elections become less free and fair. We identify six strategies to manipulate regional elections which are applied in at least two electoral autocracies: simultaneity between regional and national elections, limiting party entry, gerrymandering, nationalizing regional election campaigns, party switching, and centralization of authority.
{"title":"Regional assemblies and executives, regional authority, and the strategic manipulation of regional elections in electoral autocracies","authors":"A. Schakel, Valentyna Romanova","doi":"10.1080/13597566.2022.2103546","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2022.2103546","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In this introduction, we set out to analyse the relationship between regional elections and regional authority and the extent to which regional elections are held free and fair. We hypothesize that the incentives to interfere increase when regions exercise more authority but the possibilities to interfere decline when the regional executive is elected. A quantitative analysis confirms that directly elected and stronger regional bodies make them more attractive for central meddling, but the presence of elected executives makes central interference less likely. We zoom-in on nine electoral autocracies that have featured in the past five annual reviews of regional elections to explore how regional elections become less free and fair. We identify six strategies to manipulate regional elections which are applied in at least two electoral autocracies: simultaneity between regional and national elections, limiting party entry, gerrymandering, nationalizing regional election campaigns, party switching, and centralization of authority.","PeriodicalId":46657,"journal":{"name":"Regional and Federal Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45782888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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