APROBACIÓN PRESIDENCIAL Y CLARIDAD DE LA RESPONSABILIDAD EN UN CONTEXTO DE CAMBIO POLÍTICO E INSTITUCIONAL: EL CASO URUGUAYO

Abstract

How do Uruguayans valuate their presidents? Do they evaluate them according to the cycle model of approval observed in presidential systems with fixed terms? The cyclical model of approval begins with a ̈honeymoon ̈ of high approval which then decreases only to improve towards the end of the presidential term. In Uruguay, the results show that this pattern indeed holds for the last four presidential terms, but not for the previous three (from 1985 to 1999). These terms do not indeed register honeymoons and approval is low and unpredictable. What explains these changes in the dynamics of presidential approval? This paper argues that it is due to institutional changes introduced in the 1997’s Constitution and new party system equilibrium. Using measures derived from the Executive Approval Project, it tests some of the empirical implications of this argument. This cross-temporal analysis suggests that, under the new institutional contexts, support for the president increases, bolstering “clarity of responsibility” and allowing citizens to evaluate their presidents based on results of political performance and electoral cycle. For this reason, the pattern of approval turns cyclical. In sum, by analyzing the Uruguayan case, this paper tries to provide evidence as to the importance of institutional design in citizens ́ approval of the president’s performance.