Exploring violent crimes in Chicago during the COVID-19 pandemic: do location, crime type, and social distancing type matter?

Abstract

ABSTRACT The current study estimates the impact of the SAH order on violent crimes across public and residential locations: assault, battery, homicide, robbery, and sexual assault. Using interrupted time series analyses, it analyzes weekly crime data in Chicago, Illinois, from 2017 to 2020. The SAH order caused significant decreases in battery and sexual assault across public and residential locations. It also decreased assault in public locations only. Such decreases in assault, battery, and sexual assault were greater under the SAH order when social distancing was strictly enforced, as opposed to during the relaxation of social distancing. On the other hand, there were significant increases in homicide across public and residential locations. Robbery increased in public locations only. There were greater increases in homicide and robbery during the relaxation of social distancing, as opposed to under the SAH order. The study ultimately indicates that the impacts of the containment measures are conditional upon the offense location, type of crime, and level of social distancing being mandated. From a public policy perspective, it is important to allocate staffing and resources for law enforcement accordingly during the enduring pandemic.