Analysing and predicting a country’s entrepreneurial activity using insights from entrepreneurs’ digital footprint

Z. Tekic, Andrei Parfenov, Maksim Malyy
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Abstract

Purpose Starting from intention–behaviour models and building upon the growing evidence that aggregated internet search query data represent a good proxy of human interests and intentions. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that the internet search traffic information related to the selected key terms associated with establishing new businesses, reflects well the dynamics of entrepreneurial activity in a country and can be used for predicting entrepreneurial activity at the national level. Design/methodology/approach Theoretical framework is based on intention–behaviour models and supported by the knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship. Monthly data on new business registration from 2018 to 2021 is derived from the open database of the Russian Federal Tax Service. Terms of internet search interest are identified through interviews with the recent founders of new businesses, whereas the internet search query statistics on the identified terms are obtained from Google Trends and Yandex Wordstat. Findings The results suggest that aggregated data about web searches related to opening a new business in a country is positively correlated with the dynamics of entrepreneurial activity in the country and, as such, may be useful for predicting the level of that activity. Practical implications The results may serve as a starting point for a new approach to measure, monitor and predict entrepreneurial activities in a country and can help in better addressing policymaking issues related to entrepreneurship. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is original in its approach and results. Building on intention–behaviour models, this study outlines, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, the first usage of big data for analysing the intention–behaviour relationship in entrepreneurship. This study also contributes to the ongoing debate about the value of big data for entrepreneurship research by proposing and demonstrating the credibility of internet search query data as a novel source of quality data in analysing and predicting a country’s entrepreneurial activity.
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利用企业家的数字足迹分析和预测一个国家的创业活动
目的:从意图-行为模型出发,建立在越来越多的证据的基础上,即聚合的互联网搜索查询数据代表了人类兴趣和意图的良好代理。本研究的目的是证明与建立新业务相关的选定关键术语相关的互联网搜索流量信息,很好地反映了一个国家的创业活动动态,并可用于预测国家层面的创业活动。设计/方法/途径理论框架以意向-行为模型为基础,以创业知识溢出理论为支撑。2018年至2021年的月度新商业登记数据来自俄罗斯联邦税务局的开放数据库。互联网搜索兴趣的术语是通过对新企业最近创始人的采访确定的,而互联网搜索查询统计数据来自谷歌Trends和Yandex Wordstat。研究结果表明,与在一个国家开设新企业相关的网络搜索汇总数据与该国创业活动的动态正相关,因此,可能有助于预测该活动的水平。实际意义研究结果可作为衡量、监测和预测一国创业活动的新方法的起点,并有助于更好地解决与创业有关的决策问题。原创性/价值据作者所知,这项研究在方法和结果上都是原创的。本研究以意向-行为模型为基础,据作者所知,首次将大数据用于分析创业中的意向-行为关系。本研究还提出并证明了互联网搜索查询数据作为分析和预测一个国家的创业活动的高质量数据的新来源的可信度,从而为正在进行的关于创业研究大数据价值的辩论做出了贡献。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.70
自引率
16.70%
发文量
68
期刊介绍: JEEE acquaints the readers with the latest trends and directions of explorations in the theory and practice of entrepreneurship. For the research section, the Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies considers high quality theoretical and empirical academic research articles in the field of entrepreneurship, as well as general reviews. The ‘Entrepreneurship in practice’ section publishes insights from industry, case studies, policy focus pieces and interviews with entrepreneurs. Coverage will focus primarily on the following topics: Government policy on entrepreneurship International entrepreneurship Small and medium-sized enterprises Family-owned businesses The innovator as an individual and as a personality type New venture creation and acquisitions of a growing company Entrepreneurial behaviour in large organizations Venture financing and entrepreneurial education Minority issues in small business and entrepreneurship Corporate and non-profit entrepreneurship Ethics, the entrepreneur and the company Entrepreneurial cooperation and networking Entrepreneurial environment and cross-cultural management Comparative studies of entrepreneurship and marketing issues Development of the service sector and Chinese economy Chinese marketing and business innovation Service marketing and service innovation Brand management and network innovation Supply chain management and customer relationship management Entrepreneurial processes Risk management and venture capital Entrepreneurship and environmental sustainability Entrepreneurial growth and business sustainability Entrepreneurship, social sustainability, and social justice Entrepreneurship, proverty alleviation, and economic development.
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