On the descriptive value of the reliance on small-samples assumption

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI:10.1017/s1930297500009311
Ido Erev, Doron Cohen, Ofir Yakobi
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Abstract

Experience is the best teacher. Yet, in the context of repeated decisions, experience was found to trigger deviations from maximization in the direction of underweighting of rare events. Evaluations of alternative explanations for this bias led to contradicting conclusions. Studies that focused on the aggregate choice rates, including a series of choice prediction competitions, favored the assumption that this bias reflects reliance on small samples. In contrast, studies that focused on individual decisions suggest that the bias reflects a strong myopic tendency by a significant minority of participants. The current analysis clarifies the apparent inconsistency by reanalyzing a data set that previously led to contradicting conclusions. Our analysis suggests that the apparent inconsistency reflects the differing focus of the cognitive models. Specifically, sequential adjustment models (that assume sensitivity to the payoffs’ weighted averages) tend to find support for the hypothesis that the deviations from maximization are a product of strong positive recency (a form of myopia). Conversely, models assuming random sampling of past experiences tend to find support to the hypothesis that the deviations reflect reliance on small samples. We propose that the debate should be resolved by using the assumptions that provide better predictions. Applying this solution to the data set we analyzed shows that the random sampling assumption outperforms the weighted average assumption both when predicting the aggregate choice rates and when predicting the individual decisions.
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关于依赖小样本假设的描述性价值
经验是最好的老师。然而,在重复决策的背景下,经验被发现会引发偏离最大化的偏差,朝着减少罕见事件权重的方向发展。对这种偏见的替代解释的评价导致了相互矛盾的结论。关注总选择率的研究,包括一系列选择预测竞赛,支持这样一种假设,即这种偏差反映了对小样本的依赖。相比之下,专注于个人决策的研究表明,这种偏见反映了相当一部分参与者强烈的短视倾向。目前的分析通过重新分析之前导致矛盾结论的数据集,澄清了明显的不一致性。我们的分析表明,明显的不一致反映了认知模型的不同焦点。具体而言,序列调整模型(假设对收益加权平均值的敏感性)倾向于支持这样一种假设,即与最大化的偏差是强正近因(近视的一种形式)的产物。相反,假设对过去经历进行随机抽样的模型往往会支持这样一种假设,即偏差反映了对小样本的依赖。我们建议,应该利用能够提供更好预测的假设来解决这场辩论。将该解决方案应用于我们分析的数据集表明,无论是在预测总体选择率还是在预测个人决策时,随机抽样假设都优于加权平均假设。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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