{"title":"What Do Index Options Teach Us About COVID-19?","authors":"J. Jackwerth","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3573558","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Risk-neutral distributions of the S&P 500 are informative about the COVID-19 pandemic beyond what one can learn from index values and the market fear gauge of the VIX alone. We learn that, on February 20, 2020, the index did not yet reflect the impending crisis. Only on March 16, 2020, was the full impact visible, with a pronounced bimodality for longer-maturity options revealing a sizeable crash scenario. The corresponding physical distribution is more symmetric and features a high-volatility crash scenario. Firms bought crash protection ahead of the index crash, whereas retail customers bought it as the index was already recovering.","PeriodicalId":21144,"journal":{"name":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2020-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"31","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3573558","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 31
Abstract
Abstract Risk-neutral distributions of the S&P 500 are informative about the COVID-19 pandemic beyond what one can learn from index values and the market fear gauge of the VIX alone. We learn that, on February 20, 2020, the index did not yet reflect the impending crisis. Only on March 16, 2020, was the full impact visible, with a pronounced bimodality for longer-maturity options revealing a sizeable crash scenario. The corresponding physical distribution is more symmetric and features a high-volatility crash scenario. Firms bought crash protection ahead of the index crash, whereas retail customers bought it as the index was already recovering.
期刊介绍：
The Review of Asset Pricing Studies (RAPS) is a journal that aims to publish high-quality research in asset pricing. It evaluates papers based on their original contribution to the understanding of asset pricing. The topics covered in RAPS include theoretical and empirical models of asset prices and returns, empirical methodology, macro-finance, financial institutions and asset prices, information and liquidity in asset markets, behavioral investment studies, asset market structure and microstructure, risk analysis, hedge funds, mutual funds, alternative investments, and other related topics.
Manuscripts submitted to RAPS must be exclusive to the journal and should not have been previously published. Starting in 2020, RAPS will publish three issues per year, owing to an increasing number of high-quality submissions. The journal is indexed in EconLit, Emerging Sources Citation IndexTM, RePEc (Research Papers in Economics), and Scopus.
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