Efectos de la credibilidad fiscal sobre las expectativas de inversión en Colombia: evidencia empírica para el periodo 2005-2019

Abstract

Fiscal credibility plays an important role in creating favorable scenarios for investment and economic growth. Adequate management of public finances can be decisive in the perception of country risk and the attraction of foreign capital. The aim of this paper is to build a fiscal credibility index and eval-uate its impact on investment expectations in Colombia for the 2005-2019 period. Using monthly data on fiscal credibility, investment expectations, and a set of control variables, estimates were made using OLS and GMM meth-ods. Robustness tests were performed using impulse-response functions. The findings reveal that fiscal credibility directly influences the investment deci-sions of private agents, and that local interest rates and international volatility negatively affect investors’ expectations.