Temperature variance portends and indicates the extent of abrupt climate shifts

Abstract

Here, we show a discernable increase in temperature variance before a glacial termination by both the Ansari-Bradley test and the moving variance methods plus introduce the idea that there is a correlation between the peak variance and peak temperature increase. The behavior of temperature variance shows potential as a useful tool in analyzing time series data of Earth systems to assess the risk and extent of an upcoming abrupt climate transition.