{"title":"Nowcasting regional job growth using payroll processing company data","authors":"K. Phillips, Christopher Slijk","doi":"10.3233/JEM-170442","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Data from large payroll processing companies are a potential source of regional job growth estimates that are timelier than official government statistics. Monthly private sector employment data from ADP, LLC is available for 29 U.S. states and Washington DC about 10 days prior to official employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Using a simple model with real-time data, lags of job growth and the coincident month ADP estimates, we find that for all 30 regions the information in the ADP is statistically significant in nowcasting the most recent month of job growth. Our results suggest that the ADP data are an important source of information for analysts conducting regional current analysis.","PeriodicalId":53705,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic and Social Measurement","volume":"42 1","pages":"189-198"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2017-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/JEM-170442","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic and Social Measurement","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3233/JEM-170442","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Social Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Data from large payroll processing companies are a potential source of regional job growth estimates that are timelier than official government statistics. Monthly private sector employment data from ADP, LLC is available for 29 U.S. states and Washington DC about 10 days prior to official employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Using a simple model with real-time data, lags of job growth and the coincident month ADP estimates, we find that for all 30 regions the information in the ADP is statistically significant in nowcasting the most recent month of job growth. Our results suggest that the ADP data are an important source of information for analysts conducting regional current analysis.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Economic and Social Measurement (JESM) is a quarterly journal that is concerned with the investigation of all aspects of production, distribution and use of economic and other societal statistical data, and with the use of computers in that context. JESM publishes articles that consider the statistical methodology of economic and social science measurements. It is concerned with the methods and problems of data distribution, including the design and implementation of data base systems and, more generally, computer software and hardware for distributing and accessing statistical data files. Its focus on computer software also includes the valuation of algorithms and their implementation, assessing the degree to which particular algorithms may yield more or less accurate computed results. It addresses the technical and even legal problems of the collection and use of data, legislation and administrative actions affecting government produced or distributed data files, and similar topics. The journal serves as a forum for the exchange of information and views between data producers and users. In addition, it considers the various uses to which statistical data may be put, particularly to the degree that these uses illustrate or affect the properties of the data. The data considered in JESM are usually economic or social, as mentioned, but this is not a requirement; the editorial policies of JESM do not place a priori restrictions upon the data that might be considered within individual articles. Furthermore, there are no limitations concerning the source of the data.
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