{"title":"An improved definition of official excess winter mortality statistics as the basis for detailed analysis and monitoring","authors":"Paul Smith, Atanaska Nikolova, D. Elliott","doi":"10.3233/jem-210482","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In official statistics, excess winter mortality, the number of additional deaths in a winter period, is typically defined as the difference between mortality in a winter period relative to the nonwinter periods before and after. We note two limitations of this approach: (1) the data for the period after winter is available only later, so estimates of excess winter mortality are not timely; (2) unusually high or low numbers of deaths in the non-winter periods can affect estimates. We propose an alternative statistic based on the application of standard seasonal adjustment procedures. We compare the approaches and present some illustrative analyses. The new statistic provides a more objective and timely official series, but is susceptible to revisions, which are shown to be small in practice. We recommend it as the basis of more detailed monitoring and modelling.","PeriodicalId":53705,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic and Social Measurement","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic and Social Measurement","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3233/jem-210482","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Social Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In official statistics, excess winter mortality, the number of additional deaths in a winter period, is typically defined as the difference between mortality in a winter period relative to the nonwinter periods before and after. We note two limitations of this approach: (1) the data for the period after winter is available only later, so estimates of excess winter mortality are not timely; (2) unusually high or low numbers of deaths in the non-winter periods can affect estimates. We propose an alternative statistic based on the application of standard seasonal adjustment procedures. We compare the approaches and present some illustrative analyses. The new statistic provides a more objective and timely official series, but is susceptible to revisions, which are shown to be small in practice. We recommend it as the basis of more detailed monitoring and modelling.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Economic and Social Measurement (JESM) is a quarterly journal that is concerned with the investigation of all aspects of production, distribution and use of economic and other societal statistical data, and with the use of computers in that context. JESM publishes articles that consider the statistical methodology of economic and social science measurements. It is concerned with the methods and problems of data distribution, including the design and implementation of data base systems and, more generally, computer software and hardware for distributing and accessing statistical data files. Its focus on computer software also includes the valuation of algorithms and their implementation, assessing the degree to which particular algorithms may yield more or less accurate computed results. It addresses the technical and even legal problems of the collection and use of data, legislation and administrative actions affecting government produced or distributed data files, and similar topics. The journal serves as a forum for the exchange of information and views between data producers and users. In addition, it considers the various uses to which statistical data may be put, particularly to the degree that these uses illustrate or affect the properties of the data. The data considered in JESM are usually economic or social, as mentioned, but this is not a requirement; the editorial policies of JESM do not place a priori restrictions upon the data that might be considered within individual articles. Furthermore, there are no limitations concerning the source of the data.
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