Effectiveness of investing in war bonds

Abstract

When facing the threat of war, one of the critical decisions the authorities are obliged to take concerns war finance. The most common methods are taxation and debt. The work addresses financing war through war bonds and the profitability of investments in these bonds from investors’ perspectives. Research has shown that parties to a conflict at the beginning of warfare can obtain cheap financing. As the conflict develops, bond yields increase but only to a certain level. Once a certain threshold is exceeded, there is no increase in the yield. The phenomenon was explained by the clientele effect, i.e., the differentiation of groups that purchase financial instruments. The first issuances of war bonds are mainly covered by investors seeking profit and the so-called “patriotic demand”. As the conflict develops, the risk increases, and only patriotic demand persists. The second regularity observed is that it is unprofitable to invest in war bonds. It appears inefficient since war bonds are below the CAPM line. The inefficiency results from patriotic demand, namely when bonds are purchased by citizens whose desire for profit is of secondary importance. The analysis also shows that countries, where no warfare is taking place are more likely to discharge their obligations. That is logical, as economies of not destroyed countries are more likely to repay their liabilities. However, it indicates that the war bond market is not efficient. Investors should consider their expectations and request higher bond yields, which has not happened so far. Another regularity noted is that, at the beginning of the conflict, bonds do not signal which side to the conflict has a better chance of winning.