Poverty and conflict in Thailand’s Deep South

Abstract

Thailand’s so-called Deep South has experienced much deadly violence since the early 2000s. This article investigates its determining factors in the context of the larger civil unrest/civil war literature—work on Southeast Asia being sparse and work on Thailand almost non-existent. The focus is on 37 sub-provincial districts of four of Thailand’s 77 provinces covering the years from 2012 to 2019. Centering on descriptive statistics with additional panel regressions, it is found that reduced poverty incidence, increased educational attainment for males, and increased district-level per capita income are all associated with reduced conflict intensity (a smaller number of conflict-related deaths). In contrast, ethno-religious backgrounds and certain geographic features are not associated with either increases or decreases in conflict-related deaths.