IN A SECURITY DILEMMA

Abstract

China's economic growth and related assertiveness are causing significant changes in the Asia Pacific strategic environment, producing policy responses from the region's major powers, and gaining linkage with 1914 Europe. This article revisits the analogy, made in 2014, between the Asia Pacific today and Europe of 1914 to theoretically explain Asia Pacific's strategic environment vis-à-vis China's rise and the responses of four Asia Pacific powers—the United States, Australia, India, and Japan. Using the notion of “security dilemma,” I argue that a perceived threat of China's newfound confidence expressed in military aggressions creates distrust, fear, and uncertainty in the Asia Pacific, resembling Germany and its ambitions in the first half of twentieth century Europe. However, the similarity does not necessarily mean that the two environments and periods would produce similar outcomes because the strategic conditions are different. Asia Pacific today is more constrained in alliances than twentieth century Europe. I conclude by critiquing the balance of power to propose a power-sharing mechanism in the region to ensure peace.