Evaluation of artificial intelligence models for daily prediction of reference evapotranspiration using temperature, rainfall and relative humidity in a warm sub-humid environment

Abstract

Accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration is essential for agricultural management and water resources engineering applications. In the present study, the ability and precision of three artificial intelligence (AI) models (i.e., Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost)) were assessed for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration (ET0) using limited weather data from five locations in a warm sub-humid climate in Mexico. The Penman–Monteith FAO-56 equation was used as a reference target for ET0 values. Three different input combinations were investigated, namely: temperature-based (minimum and maximum air temperature), rainfall-based (minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature and rainfall), and relative humidity-based (minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature and relative humidity). Extraterrestrial radiation values were used in all combinations. The temperature-based AI models were compared with the conventional Hargreaves–Samani (HS) model commonly used to estimate ET0 when only temperature records are available. The goodness of fit for all models was assessed in terms of the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The results showed that among the AI models evaluated, the SVM models outperformed ANFIS and CatBoost for modeling ET0. Further, the influence of relative humidity and rainfall on the performance of the models was investigated. The analysis indicated that relative humidity significantly improved the accuracy of the models. Finally, the results showed a better response of the temperature-based AI models over the HS method. AI models can be an adequate alternative to conventional models for ET0 modeling.