Ripe moments for Exiting Political Violence: an Analysis of the Northern Ireland Case

Q4 Social Sciences Irish Studies in International Affairs Pub Date : 2022-02-26 DOI:10.1353/isia.2018.0030
Eileen Connolly, J. Doyle
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Abstract

Abstract:William Zartman's concept of ‘ripeness’ has been strongly criticised on both methodological and substantive grounds, yet it remains central to both academic and policy debates. This paper assesses the usefulness of Zartman's model through an analysis of the three peace agreements which were negotiated during the Northern Ireland conflict—the 1973 power-sharing Sunningdale Agreement, the 1985 inter-governmental Anglo-Irish Agreement and the 1998 Belfast Agreement. It uses a refined version of Zartman's model to argue that the concept of ‘ripeness’ remains a useful means to analyse the potential for peace and that it can provide an explanation for the relative success of the 1998 Belfast Agreement and for the failure of previous agreements.This research was supported by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Community Framework Programme (grant no: PIRSES-GA-2011-295232)
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退出政治暴力的时机成熟:对北爱尔兰案例的分析
摘要:William Zartman的“成熟”概念在方法论和实质性方面都受到了强烈批评,但它仍然是学术和政策辩论的核心。本文通过分析北爱尔兰冲突期间谈判达成的三项和平协议——1973年的权力分享Sunningdale协议、1985年的政府间英爱协议和1998年的贝尔法斯特协议,评估了Zartman模型的有用性。它使用了Zartman模型的改进版本,认为“成熟”的概念仍然是分析和平潜力的有用手段,它可以解释1998年《贝尔法斯特协定》的相对成功和以前协定的失败。这项研究得到了第七届欧洲共同体框架计划中的玛丽·居里国际研究人员交流计划奖学金的支持(拨款编号:PIRSES-GA-2011-295232)
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来源期刊
Irish Studies in International Affairs
Irish Studies in International Affairs Social Sciences-Political Science and International Relations
CiteScore
0.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
22
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