Quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for Campylobacter in raw milk of dairy cows in Germany

Abstract

The consumer demand for raw milk from dairy cows has increased and local sales via vending machines have been intensified. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the risk associated with the consumption of unboiled raw milk contaminated with Campylobacter by estimating the number of campylobacteriosis cases. For this a stochastic quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was developed that covered the whole supply chain. Information and data for model parametrization were obtained from research publications. Different probability distributions were used to represent the data whenever possible and probabilistic risk estimation was performed using Monte Carlo simulations. Simulations for outbreaks from single vending machines were performed using the developed QMRA baseline model. Further, different risk mitigation scenarios along the supply chain were evaluated to support risk managers in controlling Campylobacter. The analysis suggest a role for Campylobacter infections due to fecal contamination of cows’ udder. The model can easily be adapted and extended when additional data become available as it is provides in the harmonized exchange Food Safety Knowledge Exchange (FSKX) format.