Impact of US-China trade war on Asian economies: neural network multilayer perceptron approach

M. N. Rahman, B. Iqbal, Nida Rahman
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA. Design/methodology/approach A conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war. Findings The hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors’ services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements. Originality/value The study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.
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中美贸易战对亚洲经济的影响:神经网络多层感知器方法
本研究旨在找出中美贸易战对亚洲经济的影响。除了与贸易相关的宏观经济变量外,本研究明确地创建了一个贸易战场景和贸易战参与者假人。本研究使用神经网路多层感知器,以亚洲经济体和美国为样本,检验预测因子与目标产出之间的因果关系。设计/方法/方法在一个象限中建立了一个贸易战后果的概念模型。这项针对19个亚洲经济体的研究包括了与贸易和关税相关的变量。利用神经网络分析的前馈结构识别贸易战的强弱预测因子。多层感知器的隐藏层揭示了预测者的服务出口、关税措施、反倾销措施、贸易战情景虚拟与国内生产总值之间的联系不一致。研究结果表明,为了减少贸易战对亚洲经济体的影响,必须在政策制定和贸易协定中给予具有神经证据的预测者应有的重视。原创性/价值本研究应用了一种新颖且很少被探索的人工智能/机器学习神经网络分析技术,训练了70%的观察值。本文将为其他研究人员在贸易研究中探索人工智能/机器学习技术提供机会。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
4.20%
发文量
17
期刊介绍: The Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies (JCEFTS) negotiates China''s unique position within the international economy, and its interaction across the globe. From a truly international perspective, the journal publishes both qualitative and quantitative research in all areas of Chinese business and foreign trade, technical economics, business environment and business strategy. JCEFTS publishes high quality research papers, viewpoints, conceptual papers, case studies, literature reviews and general views. Emphasis is placed on the publication of articles which seek to link theory with application, or critically analyse real situations in terms of Chinese economics and business in China, with the objective of identifying good practice in these areas and assisting in the development of more appropriate arrangements for addressing crucial issues of Chinese economics and business. Papers accepted for publication will be double–blind peer-reviewed to ensure academic rigour and integrity.
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