Diagnosing seasonal forecast skill of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode using model-analogs

Abstract

A retrospective tropical Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) hindcast for 1958–2014 was conducted using 20 models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with a model-based analog forecast (MAF) method. In the MAF approach, forecast ensembles are extracted from preexisting model simulations by finding the states that initially best match an observed anomaly and tracking their subsequent evolution, with no additional model integrations. By optimizing the key factors in the MAF method, we suggest that the optimal do main for the analog criteria should be concentrated in the tropical Indian Ocean region for IOD predictions. Including external forcing trends improves the skills of the east and west poles of the IOD, but not the IOD prediction itself. The MAF IOD prediction showed comparable skills to the assimilation-initialized hindcast, with skillful predictions corresponding to a 4- and 3-month lead respectively. The IOD forecast skills had significant decadal variations during the 55-year period, with low skills after the early 2000s and before 1985 and high skills during 1985–2000. This work offers a computational efficiency and practical approach for seasonal prediction of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature.