Application of Index Models in Assessing the Foreign Economic Activity of Ukraine

Abstract

The importance of statistical assessment of foreign economic activities in Ukraine, considering the structure and geographical re-orientation of the Ukrainian foreign trade and new challenges of the globalized and highly competitive market of goods and services, gives rise to the modeling of patterns underlying future tendencies in the development of the Ukrainian foreign trade. The article contains a description of approaches to the analysis of foreign economic activities in Ukraine by use of index models. Several index models are constructed and used for assessing the debt burden of Ukraine, the impact of selected sub-factors on it are determined, and the dynamics of the export quota in 2016–2017 are highlighted By use of the chain substitutions method it is found that the debt burden of Ukraine decreased in 2017, compared to 2016, by 21.0% due to the reduced import dependence of Ukraine, by 12.0% due to the partial debt burden, but increased by 4.1% due to the export losses. The results show that the strongest impact on the dynamics of debt burden of Ukraine came from the import dependence (56.6%), which means that the strict import quota remains the main factor of the increasing foreign debt of Ukraine, which caused 5.9% loss of export earnings in 2016, and 2.3% in 2017. The analysis of the export quota dynamics based on the index model showed that the impact of the international intraspecific specialization of the country on it was 43.2%, and the impact of the exports’ share in the foreign trade balance made 44.7%. That is, the main factors of change are the commodity and geographical specialization of Ukraine, as well as the imbalance in the foreign trade. Results of the analysis of the indices of averages show that due to the growth in export quotas of products of vegetable origin, fats and oils by 12.7%, and under the influence of the commodity structure of exports (–8.4%), the export quota increased by 3.2% in 2017 compared to 2012. The import quota of goods decreased by 17%, including by 7.6% due to the reduced import dependence of the country, and by 10.1% due to the changed structure of imports. Results of the analysis indicate significant change in the trend of export and import quotas of Ukraine on account of geographical reorientation: due to changes in the geographical structure of exports and imports of Ukraine, the export and import quotas decreased by 41.5%, and 32.2%, respectively. The analysis of the commodity structure of the Ukrainian foreign trade in 2012–2017 shows that the largest export positions were non-precious metals (ferrous metals and products made thereof), grain crops, fats and oils, electric machinery; in the exports of services, the largest share was accounted for by transport services, telecommunication services, computer and information services, processing of material resources, and business services. In the commodity structure of imports, mineral products had the largest share, which, however, decreased by 7.36 percentage points in 2017 compared to 2012. Imports of services are dominated by transport services and government services. The Russian Federation remains to be main partner in export-import operations of Ukraine: 9.1% of the Ukraine’s exports of goods in 2017, which is 16.53 percentage points less than in 2012; and 14.5% of the imports of goods in 2017, which is 17.86 percentage points less than in 2012. The main partner of Ukraine in the imports of services is the U.S., with 11.78% of the total imports of services in 2017, which is 6.7 percentage points more than in 2012.