Does polygyny cause intergroup conflict? Re-examining Koos and Neupert-Wentz (2020)

Abstract

An article recently published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution by Koos and Nuepert-Wentz finds an association between geographically proximate polygynous ethnic groups and rural violence in Africa. This study applies several empirical adjustments to their analysis. The association between rural violence and polygynous neighbors loses significance when replacing violent events with fatalities in both ACLED and UCDP-GED data or converting event counts to binary. Subsetting Afrobarometer data by urban and rural respondents shows that rural respondents from polygynous groups are not significantly more likely to feel violence is justified. Moreover, there is no evidence the conflicts leading to the most rural violence in ACLED, farmer-herder clashes, or UCDP-GED, violence during the apartheid transition in South Africa, are related to “excess men.” Both conflicts suggest broader violations in the assumptions made in hypothesizing why polygynous neighbors lead to rural violence. The re-analysis calls the claim that polygyny is associated with rural violence into question and suggests researchers use broader approaches to measuring violence than just event counts.