Bioclimatic projection of the ecological niche of curly mallow (Malva verticillata) based on the forecast of the dynamics of the geographical range in the context of global climate change

Abstract

Curly mallow (Malva verticillata L.) is a promising species for cultivation to obtain valuable compounds for the application in medicine, and this species can be used in the bioenergy system to provide industry with alternative energy sources. For the highest economic efficiency, the practical use of this species requires the development of complex measures related to both agrotechnologies and selective breeding. Such measures require resources and there is an urgent problem of assessing the prospects of such investments taking into account the global climate change. Therefore, the problem that we aimed to solve was the assessment of how the global climate change would impact the curly mallow in general in the global context, as well as in the conditions of Ukraine in the next 50–70 years. The database of the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) contains 2,104 records of curly-leaved mallow. This species is found on all the continents except Antarctica. Asia accounts for 39.1% of the species’ range, Europe – 53.3%, Africa – 3.6%, North America – 3.2%, South America – 0.1%, Australia – 0.8%. The modelling of M. verticillata response to the climatic factors showed that the best response models were V (in 31.6% of cases) and VII (in 36.8% of cases). Model V characterizes unimodal bell-shaped asymmetric response, and model VII – bimodal asymmetric response. The species response to the mean annual temperature is asymmetric bell-shaped with a shift to the right. The optimal average annual temperature for this species is 9.1 °C. Comparing the distribution of available resources and their use is the basis for identifying the features of the ecological niche of the species. The MaxEnt approach indicates that Southeast Asia and Europe have the most favourable conditions for the existence of this species. Changes in the climatic conditions over the next 50–70 years will make the conditions for the life of M. verticillata in the southern hemisphere unfavourable, and the favourable conditions for it in the northern hemisphere will shift significantly to the north. At the same time, conditions in the autochthonous range of the species will become unfavourable. Obviously, if not for the significant potential of the species to disperse, it would have died out as a result of the significant climate change. The area where favourable conditions for the species will remain unchanged is Central Europe. Conditions in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, will moderately improve. The results indicate the perspective of the cultivation of curly mallow in Ukraine in the future.