The AUKUS umbrella: Australia-US relations and strategic culture in the shadow of China's rise

Abstract

In September 2021, Australia, the US, and the United Kingdom entered into a new trilateral security pact, AUKUS. Central to AUKUS is Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, scheduled to begin delivery in the 2030s. AUKUS was announced by Australia's previous conservative government, but it has also won the strong support of the new Labor government. The rationale behind AUKUS emphasizes growing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific and the advantages of joint capabilities and interoperability in the context of China's growing assertiveness in the region. This article examines AUKUS through the lens of China's rise and the contradictory economic and security imperatives that the agreement poses for Australia. We argue that AUKUS is the latest expression of Australia's strategic culture, which is premised on a fear of abandonment and a conviction that Australia's core security interests can only be guaranteed by the support of the US. Yet this position harbours risks that are not widely acknowledged. These include risks to Australia's sovereignty and other risks arising from the uncertainties of the US position in Asia and the volatility of US domestic politics.