Evolution in the Consumer ABS Market (Past, Present, and Future)

Abstract

The consumer ABS market provides a large and growing source of funding to the US economy. Historically the market consisted primarily of auto loans, credit card receivables, and student loans. Over the past decade, esoteric ABS issuance has proliferated, as more markets are able to securitize cash flows to unlock a lower cost of funding relative to comparable corporate alternatives. Sectors that did not exist 10 years ago have grown to be large and liquid market sectors, including marketplace lending, solar, property assessed clean energy, and consumer handset receivables. This trend has been aided by a pullback in bank lending, driven by post-great financial crisis (GFC) regulation and capital regime changes. The Fed’s imposition of higher interest rates throughout 2022 and into 2023 is designed to slow the economy and reduce inflation, but is also likely to put pressure on consumer performance in the coming months. While consumer balance sheets remain relatively healthy, excess savings accumulated during the pandemic have been eroding, and delinquency rates are expected to rise. While performance is expected to deteriorate, consumer ABS structures have gotten safer since the GFC—including via more credit enhancement and better-quality collateral—and some of the longer-standing structures have shown their ability to withstand a variety of macroeconomic environments without taking a loss. Despite the more robust structures, performance of newer esoteric asset classes will be watched closely as we enter a more volatile macroeconomic environment. The ABS market will continue to evolve in the coming years, as large structural change has tended to correspond to material changes in macroeconomic conditions. Regardless of the changes, we expect the market to remain an integral source of funding for the US consumer.