A Comprehensive Assessment of the Demographic Security of the Republic of Belarus

Abstract

Security is a necessary component of the life of individuals and society as a whole. One of the most important components of the national security is demographic security, which achievement in the Republic of Belarus means the neutralization of threats such as depopulation, population ageing, degradation of the family institute and unregulated migration processes. The article presents a methodology for a comprehensive statistical assessment of the demographic security of the Republic of Belarus for 2000–2019, based on of the dualistic approach to the interpretation of this concept, proposed by the author, namely: real and potential demographic security. The real demographic security is the degree of protection from demographic threats in the current social circumstances, which is largely determined by the compliance of government policy with demographic realities. The proposed methodology for a comprehensive assessment of demographic security includes five consecutive phases: formulating a definition of “demographic security”, identifying demographic threats, building a set of indicators for a comprehensive statistical assessment of demographic security, assessing the effect of demographic threats (general and real), and, finally, assessing the degree of protection from demographic threats (real demographic security). The structural components of the overall strength of demographic threats are the degrees of real demographic security and the real strength of the threats. The following trend in these values was observed in the Republic of Belarus in 2000-2019: an increase in the degree of real demographic security in parallel with a decrease in the degree of real combined strength of threats in 2015 compared to 2000, giving way to a decrease in the first indicator and an increase in the second one in 2019. It follows that the achievements of the Republic of Belarus in demographic security were short-lived. For a systemic change in the negative trends, it is necessary to form a favorable demographic situation through the active use of educational and propagandist measures.