Flood hazards and risk prediction by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process on GIS platform: a case study in lower Ajay basin, India

Abstract

Flood is the most common and natural disaster of the world. Fluvial flood basically occurred by the combination of hydro-geomorphological effect. But during the flood risk assessment, geomorphological condition analysis is ignored. Present research aimed to focus on flood assessment in the lower part of the Ajay river basin on the basis of present hydro-geomorphological conditions. Flood character analysis on the basis of present hydro-geomorphological status of the river also helps in the management strategy formulation. Remote sensing data, traditional topographical sheet and field work reach the present status of the river. Different layers of hydrological and geomorphological parameters are prepared in the Geographic Information System (GIS) field as per objective. By using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision based on comparison matrix, weighted score is extracted and in the field of GIS, the flood area is predicted. According to the categories of hazards, the extracted flood area is classified into three zones. Result depicts that 5 blocks lie in the high hazards prone area and 5 blocks are moderate. Hazards prone and validation prove that the model is 87 % correct in case of overall accuracy assessment and 81 % correct in case of Kappa statistics. Both the results of validation prove the suitability of the model.