The effect of opioids on crime: Evidence from the introduction of OxyContin

Abstract

Since the late 1990s, the U.S. has experienced a substantial rise in drug overdose and overdose deaths due to the increased use of opioid drugs. This study estimates the effects of the opioid epidemic on crime relying for identification on geographic variation in the distribution of OxyContin, which in turn was driven by initial state drug prescription policies. Using Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) data, I find that compared to states with stringent prescription policies, states more exposed to OxyContin had 25% higher violent crime rates. Thus, the supply shock of opioids combined with loose policies on prescription drugs created unintended and negative consequences beyond health and mortality. This conclusion is supported by suggestive evidence on mechanisms of mood instability, alcohol abuse, and illegal drug markets.