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Estimating the effect of concealed carry laws on murder: A response to Bondy, et al. 估计隐蔽携带枪支法对谋杀案的影响:对邦迪等人的回应
IF 0.9 3区 社会学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2024.106234
Carlisle Moody , John R. Lott
In 2021 we wrote a short paper noting that truncating the sample when estimating the effect of right to carry laws on crime could be biased by comparisons to states that already adopted the law, instead of states without the law. In 2023 Bondy et al. criticized our paper but inaccurately described what we did and provided selective and misleading results. More importantly, they completely missed the point of our analysis, namely that applying two-way fixed effects to a truncated sample, say 1991–2018, biases the resulting RTC coefficient by invalidly comparing newly treated states to 11 previously treated states. The bias is so large that even if the true coefficient on the right-to-carry dummy is negative, the estimated coefficient could be positive. These biased results can be corrected by using new DID estimators, that do not make invalid comparisons, and which are robust to time and state heterogeneity. Using these new estimators, we find that RTC laws do not significantly increase violent crime. We find evidence that RTC laws significantly reduce murder and that constitutional carry laws significantly reduce rape.
2021 年,我们撰写了一篇短文,指出在估算携带权法对犯罪的影响时,对样本进行截断,可能会因为与已通过该法律的州而非未通过该法律的州进行比较而产生偏差。2023 年,邦迪等人批评了我们的论文,但对我们所做工作的描述并不准确,并提供了选择性和误导性的结果。更重要的是,他们完全忽略了我们分析的重点,即对一个截断样本(如 1991-2018 年)应用双向固定效应,会使得出的 RTC 系数产生偏差,因为他们将新近接受治疗的州与之前接受治疗的 11 个州进行了无效比较。偏差如此之大,以至于即使携带权虚拟变量的真实系数为负,估计系数也可能为正。使用新的 DID 估计器可以纠正这些有偏差的结果,这种估计器不会进行无效比较,而且对时间和州异质性具有稳健性。利用这些新的估计方法,我们发现 RTC 法律并没有显著增加暴力犯罪。我们发现有证据表明,RTC 法律大大减少了谋杀案,而宪法规定的随身携带法律则大大减少了强奸案。
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引用次数: 0
The broken-windows theory of crime: A Bayesian approach 破窗犯罪理论:贝叶斯方法
IF 0.9 3区 社会学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2024.106233
Thomas J. Miceli, Kathleen Segerson
The broken-windows theory of crime is based on the idea that aggressive enforcement of petty crimes, like misdemeanors, will have a deterring effect on would-be perpetrators of more serious crimes. This paper develops a model of this theory that depends on three factors: (1) potential offenders make decisions about committing crimes based on their beliefs about the probability of apprehension; (2) those beliefs depend on prior observations or knowledge about the rate of petty crimes; and (3) there is a linkage across criminal categories (minor vs. serious crimes) as a component of actual enforcement policy. Our results show that even if these factors are all present, increased enforcement of low-harm crimes does not necessarily lead to fewer high-harm crimes.
犯罪 "破窗理论 "的理论基础是,对轻罪等轻微犯罪积极执法,会对可能犯下更严重罪行的人产生威慑作用。本文为这一理论建立了一个模型,该模型取决于三个因素:(1) 潜在罪犯根据他们对被捕概率的信念做出犯罪决定;(2) 这些信念取决于先前对轻罪犯罪率的观察或了解;(3) 作为实际执法政策的一部分,不同犯罪类别(轻罪与重罪)之间存在联系。我们的结果表明,即使这些因素都存在,加强对低危害性犯罪的执法也不一定会导致高危害性犯罪的减少。
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引用次数: 0
Workload, legal doctrine, and judicial review in an authoritarian regime: A study of expropriation judgments in China 专制制度下的工作量、法律理论和司法审查:中国征用判决研究
IF 0.9 3区 社会学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2024.106232
Chaoqun Zhan , Shitong Qiao
This paper contributes one of the first systematic studies on how courts adjudicate expropriation disputes both in the absence of judicial independence and in the face of resource constraints, extends the study of judicial workload into an authoritarian context, and demonstrates the complicated and dynamic interactions between apolitical and political aspects of courts in authoritarian regimes. Our results demonstrate that legal doctrine can check the abuse of government power even in situations where it is least expected. Specifically, we examined how Chinese courts, faced with an explosive increase in workload caused by a legal reform in 2015, adjudicated expropriation disputes between the government and property rights holders. Employing a difference-in-differences method, we found that an increased judicial workload improved the chances of property rights holders winning their cases against the government. We discovered that judges’ use of hard-edged legal doctrine—administrative procedures, in particular—to save time constrained judicial discretion, which is prone to arbitrary political influence in authoritarian regimes.
本文首次系统研究了法院在缺乏司法独立和面临资源限制的情况下如何裁决征用纠纷,将对司法工作量的研究扩展到专制背景下,并展示了专制制度下法院的非政治性和政治性之间复杂而动态的相互作用。我们的研究结果表明,即使在人们最不期望的情况下,法律理论也能遏制政府权力的滥用。具体而言,我们研究了中国法院在 2015 年法律改革导致工作量爆炸性增长的情况下,如何裁决政府与产权持有人之间的征用纠纷。通过采用差分法,我们发现,司法工作量的增加提高了产权持有人起诉政府的胜诉几率。我们发现,法官为了节省时间而使用强硬的法律理论--尤其是行政程序--限制了司法自由裁量权,而在专制体制下,司法自由裁量权很容易受到任意的政治影响。
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引用次数: 0
Illicit enrichment in Germany: An evaluation of the reformed asset recovery regime's ability to confiscate proceeds of crime 德国的非法致富:评估改革后的资产追回制度没收犯罪所得的能力
IF 0.9 3区 社会学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2024.106230
Cornelia Körtl, Imad Chbib

This study examines the effectiveness of Germany's reformed asset recovery regime, which was implemented in 2017, in terms of its ability to confiscate proceeds of crime and whether it qualifies as illicit enrichment legislation. The research utilizes Dornbierer's (2021) definition of illicit enrichment to evaluate the reformed asset recovery law and analyses trends in asset recovery by reviewing data on assets seized and confiscated since 2017. Additionally, the study compares the reformed asset recovery regime to its predecessor to determine whether weaknesses that reduced the effectiveness of the previous framework to confiscate PoC have been addressed, while also evaluating the reformed regime for any potential weaknesses that may hinder its ability to confiscate proceeds of crime. The study concludes that while the reformed regime introduces some elements of illicit enrichment, it does not satisfy the criteria for illicit enrichment legislation. Nonetheless, the reformed regime is more effective in confiscating proceeds of crime, as evidenced by the high value of assets seized since the reform was implemented. Additionally, most of the weaknesses that existed in the previous system have been resolved. However, the research highlights the remaining challenges regarding the confiscation of proceeds implicated in ML, fraud, and corruption, as well as profits from non-criminal offenses. Future studies could explore whether the increased confiscation of assets leads to a decrease in profit-driven crime.

本研究从没收犯罪所得的能力以及是否符合资产非法增加立法的角度,考察了德国于2017年实施的改革后的资产追回制度的有效性。研究利用多恩比勒(2021 年)对资产非法增加的定义来评估改革后的资产追回法,并通过审查 2017 年以来扣押和没收的资产数据来分析资产追回的趋势。此外,本研究还将改革后的资产追回制度与其前身进行了比较,以确定是否已经解决了削弱以前没收犯罪所得框架有效性的薄弱环节,同时还评估了改革后的制度是否存在任何可能阻碍其没收犯罪所得能力的潜在薄弱环节。研究得出的结论是,虽然改革后的制度引入了一些资产非法增加的要素,但并不符合资产非法增加立法的标准。不过,改革后的制度在没收犯罪所得方面更加有效,改革实施以来没收的资产价值很高就是证明。此外,以前制度中存在的大多数弱点都已得到解决。然而,研究强调了在没收牵涉到洗钱、欺诈和腐败的收益以及非刑事犯罪的利润方面仍然存在的挑战。未来的研究可以探讨资产没收的增加是否会导致利润驱动型犯罪的减少。
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引用次数: 0
On the strategic choice of overconfident lawyers 关于过于自信的律师的战略选择
IF 0.9 3区 社会学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2024.106231
Tim Friehe , Cat Lam Pham , Simon Xemaire

This paper analyzes how the plaintiff selects her lawyer based on lawyers’ confidence in their trial-effort productivity. The plaintiff’s lawyer works on a contingent fee and makes litigation decisions on the plaintiff’s behalf. When the lawyer’s preferences are decisive at both the settlement and the trial stage, the plaintiff must anticipate that a more confident lawyer evaluates settlement compared to trial differently and implies different equilibrium trial effort levels. When the lawyer implements the plaintiff’s ideal settlement demand, only the influence of the confidence level on trial effort levels is relevant. In both cases, the plaintiff prefers an overconfident lawyer but would be harmed by excessive overconfidence. In many circumstances, the optimal confidence level maximizes the plaintiff’s trial payoff. However, when the lawyer’s preferences are decisive at both the settlement and trial stage, the plaintiff may choose an even more confident lawyer to raise the settlement level her lawyer demands from the defendant.

本文分析了原告如何根据律师对其审判效率的信心来选择律师。原告律师以或有收费方式工作,并代表原告做出诉讼决定。当律师的偏好在和解和审判阶段都起决定性作用时,原告必须预见到,与审判相比,更自信的律师对和解的评价不同,这意味着不同的均衡审判努力水平。当律师执行原告的理想和解要求时,只有信心水平对审判努力水平的影响是相关的。在这两种情况下,原告都更喜欢过于自信的律师,但过度过度自信会损害原告的利益。在许多情况下,最佳信心水平会使原告的审判报酬最大化。然而,当律师的偏好在和解和审判阶段都起决定性作用时,原告可能会选择一名更加自信的律师,以提高其律师向被告要求的和解水平。
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引用次数: 0
Judiciary-driven finance: Quasi-experimental evidence from specialized financial adjudication institutions in China 司法驱动的金融:来自中国金融审判专门机构的准实验证据
IF 0.9 3区 社会学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2024.106227
Kangyun Bao , Shenghua Lu

The "law and finance" paradigm posits that legal institutions play a crucial role in financial development; however, China has long been considered an exception. This study challenges that assumption by examining how improvements in the judiciary affect financial development in China. Using a quasi-natural experiment (i.e., staggered difference-in-difference estimation) over a twenty-year period, we find that the establishment of specialized financial adjudication institutions (i.e., financial courts and tribunals) in certain prefecture-level cities significantly reduces financing constraints for local listed companies. Further heterogeneity tests show that these effects are more pronounced among private enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises, and companies in the central and western regions. Through the analysis of representative practices and interviews with relevant judges and enterprises, we find that China's financial judiciary demonstrates efficiency and proactiveness. Additionally, political considerations enable courts to regulate finance and maintain stability, improving the local financial legal environments and reducing transaction costs for market participants. By investigating the causal relationship between judicial reforms and financial development, our findings provide new insights into the "law and finance" theory and offer policy implications for addressing financial development gaps and promoting financial inclusion in emerging markets.

法律与金融 "范式认为,法律制度在金融发展中发挥着至关重要的作用;然而,中国长期以来一直被认为是一个例外。本研究通过考察司法机构的改善如何影响中国的金融发展,对这一假设提出了挑战。通过对 20 年间的准自然实验(即交错差分估算),我们发现,在某些地级市设立专门的金融审判机构(即金融法院和法庭)大大降低了当地上市公司的融资约束。进一步的异质性检验表明,这些效应在民营企业、中小企业以及中西部地区的企业中更为明显。通过对代表性实践的分析以及对相关法官和企业的访谈,我们发现中国的金融司法机构表现出了高效性和前瞻性。此外,政治因素使法院能够规范金融、维护稳定,改善地方金融法制环境,降低市场参与者的交易成本。通过研究司法改革与金融发展之间的因果关系,我们的研究结果为 "法律与金融 "理论提供了新的见解,并为解决新兴市场的金融发展差距和促进金融包容性提供了政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
Mandatory disclosure of open-ended real estate fund shares that are registered for redemption? 强制披露登记赎回的开放式房地产基金份额?
IF 0.9 3区 社会学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2024.106229
Thomas Kaspereit
Open-ended funds that invest in long-term assets face constant liquidity transformation risk, which can lead to financial instability. German lawmakers have responded to the liquidity crisis of open-ended real estate funds by introducing mandatory minimum holding and notice periods of 24 and 12 months, respectively. Since the new regulations were enacted in July 2013, the management companies of German open-ended real estate funds have received detailed information on the expected cash outflows from share redemptions. This article explores the question of whether the number of shares registered for redemption should be disclosed. A teleological analysis of German fund accounting law and regulation reveals a mismatch between the current nondisclosure and the stated objective to provide decision-useful information. However, a trade-off must be made between investors’ need for information and the risk of self-reinforcing panic effects, which is investigated using agent-based modeling. Parameterizing the model with historical fund data shows that disclosure would increase the probability of a redemption suspension but that such suspensions would occur timelier; thus, fewer investors would be trapped in a fund that has to suspend the redemption of shares. In addition, such disclosure would shift not only risk from uninformed, life-cycle, saving investors to sophisticated investors but also investment returns from sophisticated investors to saving investors. Such disclosure would thus constitute the opposite of what Georgakopoulos (1996, 2017) calls a disclosure subsidy for informed traders, i.e., a disclosure subsidy for uninformed investors that is borne by informed investors. However, the model in this article is distinguishable from the one outlined in Georgakopoulos (1996, 2017) because it does not model noise traders. The framework provided in this article is also relevant to the legislature in the United Kingdom and its recently created fund category of long-term asset funds.
投资于长期资产的开放式基金面临着持续的流动性转换风险,这可能导致金融不稳定。针对开放式房地产基金的流动性危机,德国立法者出台了强制性最低持有期和通知期,分别为 24 个月和 12 个月。自新法规于 2013 年 7 月颁布以来,德国开放式房地产基金的管理公司已收到有关份额赎回预期现金流出的详细信息。本文探讨了是否应披露登记赎回股份数量的问题。对德国基金会计法律法规的目的论分析表明,目前的不披露与提供决策有用信息的既定目标之间存在不匹配。然而,必须在投资者对信息的需求与自我强化恐慌效应的风险之间做出权衡,本文使用基于代理的模型对这一问题进行了研究。利用基金历史数据对模型进行参数化,结果表明,信息披露会增加暂停赎回的概率,但这种暂停赎回会更及时地发生;因此,会有更少的投资者被困在不得不暂停赎回份额的基金中。此外,这种披露不仅会将风险从不知情的、有生命周期的、储蓄型投资者转移到成熟的投资者身上,而且会将投资收益从成熟的投资者转移到储蓄型投资者身上。因此,这种信息披露将构成 Georgakopoulos(1996,2017)所说的对知情交易者的信息披露补贴的反面,即由知情投资者承担对不知情投资者的信息披露补贴。然而,本文中的模型与 Georgakopoulos(1996,2017)中概述的模型有所不同,因为它没有建立噪音交易者的模型。本文提供的框架也与英国的立法机构及其最近创立的长期资产基金类别相关。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting patent lawsuits with machine learning 用机器学习预测专利诉讼
IF 0.9 3区 社会学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2024.106228
Steffen Juranek , Håkon Otneim

We use machine learning methods to predict which patents end up in court using the population of US patents granted between 2002 and 2005. We show that patent characteristics have significant predictive power, particularly value indicators and patent-owner characteristics. Furthermore, we analyze the predictive performance concerning the number of observations used to train the model, which patent characteristics to use, and which predictive model to choose. We find that extending the set of patent characteristics has the biggest positive impact on predictive performance. The model choice matters as well. More sophisticated machine learning methods provide additional value relative to a simple logistic regression. This result highlights the existence of non-linearities among and interactions across the predictors. Our results provide practical advice to anyone building patent litigation models, e.g., for litigation insurance or patent management more generally.

我们使用机器学习方法,以 2002 年至 2005 年间获得授权的美国专利为样本,预测哪些专利最终会被送上法庭。我们的研究表明,专利特征具有显著的预测能力,尤其是价值指标和专利所有人特征。此外,我们还分析了用于训练模型的观测数据的数量、使用哪种专利特征以及选择哪种预测模型等方面的预测性能。我们发现,扩展专利特征集对预测性能的积极影响最大。模型的选择也很重要。相对于简单的逻辑回归,更复杂的机器学习方法能提供更多价值。这一结果凸显了预测因素之间存在非线性和交互作用。我们的研究结果为任何建立专利诉讼模型的人提供了实用的建议,例如用于诉讼保险或更广泛的专利管理。
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引用次数: 0
Fighting free with free: Freemium vs. Piracy 以免费对抗免费:免费与盗版
IF 0.9 3区 社会学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2024.106226
Antoine Dubus , Christine Halmenschlager , Patrick Waelbroeck

We analyze the optimal business model of a firm facing piracy. The firm either sells a premium version of its product, or also offers a free version along with the premium version. The firm can in turn impose restrictions on the use of the free version. Consumers can choose between the free and the premium version, but can also get an illegal digital copy. We show that freemium offers can reduce digital piracy by fighting free with free and that firms choose their optimal business model depending on the strength of copyright protection. Therefore, the strength of copyright protection can lead firms to choose a traditional business model rather than the new freemium model, impacting significantly the legal usage of the good.

我们分析了面临盗版问题的企业的最佳商业模式。该公司要么销售其产品的高级版本,要么在提供高级版本的同时提供免费版本。企业也可以对免费版本的使用施加限制。消费者可以在免费版和高级版之间做出选择,但也可能获得非法数字拷贝。我们的研究表明,免费服务可以通过 "以免费对抗免费 "来减少数字盗版,而且企业可以根据版权保护的力度来选择最佳商业模式。因此,版权保护的力度会导致企业选择传统的商业模式而不是新的免费模式,从而对商品的合法使用产生重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Selling and abandoning legal rights 出售和放弃合法权利
IF 0.9 3区 社会学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2024.106219
Keith N. Hylton

Legal rights impose concomitant legal burdens. This paper considers the valuation and disposition of legal rights, and legal burdens, when courts cannot be relied upon to perfectly enforce rights. Because courts do not perfectly enforce rights, victims suffer some loss in the value of their rights depending on the degree of underenforcement. The welfare implications of trading away and abandoning rights are examined. Victims do not necessarily trade away rights when and only when such trade is socially desirable. Relatively pessimistic victims (who believe their rights are weaker than injurers do) trade away rights too cheaply. Extremely pessimistic victims abandon their rights. Implications for the enforceability of waivers, discrimination in courts, and legal ethics are discussed.

法律权利会带来相应的法律负担。本文探讨了在无法依靠法院完美执行权利的情况下,法律权利和法律负担的价值评估和处置问题。由于法院不能完美地执行权利,受害者的权利价值会因执行不力的程度而遭受一定的损失。本文探讨了交换和放弃权利对福利的影响。当且仅当这种交易对社会有利时,受害者不一定会放弃权利。相对悲观的受害者(他们认为自己的权利比加害人弱)会以过于低廉的价格交换权利。极度悲观的受害者会放弃自己的权利。本文讨论了弃权的可执行性、法院中的歧视以及法律伦理的影响。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Review of Law and Economics
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