Daily Covid-19 infected population densities in Italian provinces follow Taylor’s law

Abstract

ABSTRACT Taylor’s law states that the spatial variance of the population density varies as the power function of the mean population density. This law is tested on daily Covid-19 infection density for five periods between February 25, 2020 and March 15, 2021. The Italian provinces are grouped by geography into three ensembles. A simultaneous-equation model accounts for correlations between the ensembles, between Italian provinces within each ensemble, and for temporal autocorrelations. The selected periods show ensembles with all Taylor’s law slopes below 2 (reflecting State interventions at the national level), or all above 2 (reflecting interventions at the local level), or some ensembles above while others were below. Slope of Taylor’s law and average density trend indicate whether the infection density is highly concentrated in a few provinces (when the slope is greater than 2 with increasing density, and when the slope is less than 2 with decreasing density) or spread evenly among all provinces in an ensemble (when the slope is greater than 2 with decreasing density, and when the slope is less than 2 with increasing density), which allows the government and epidemiologists to design disease control policies for targeted provinces and ensembles in Italy.