Will climate change jeopardize the Vietnamese target of maintaining farmland for food security? A fractional multinomial logit analysis of land use choice

Abstract

The Vietnamese government is concerned with long-term food security due to the rising demand for food and potential climate-induced conversion of areas under food production. This article is among the first studies which examine the climate-induced uptake of crop substitution and its likely impact on the national target of maintaining food areas to sustain food security. In contrast to most crop choice analyses which obtain cross-household evidence using a Multinomial Logit model, we model within household competition across alternative uses of land using a Fractional Multinomial Logit model. Our empirical findings suggest that Vietnamese farmers have adapted to the changing climate by selecting different crops. Increases in winter and summer temperatures mean that farmers are more likely to substitute cereals for others. Farmers choose annual industrial crops in locations with warmer springs and autumns. The choice of perennial industrial crops is sensitive to spring and autumn temperatures. Precipitation has small impacts on land use choice. The projected climate changes are not likely to jeopardize the national target of maintaining 40 percent of farmland under food production. However, we expect projected climate changes to result in large shifts from cereals to annual industrial crops in the main rice bowl of Vietnam.