Estimate the probability density function of maximum temperature for the Middle East

Abstract

Pollution is one reasons for increase temperature which leads to increase the heat waves which have large socioeconomic and healthy impacts on Middle East. By using monthly daily mean of maximum temperature (C°) at height (2m) covered middle east as a grid of (1581) points for selected months (March, April, May) represent spring and (Jun, July, August) represent Summer for the period 1979 to2018, from the ECMWF, model ERA-interim. Many PDFs have been proposed in recent past, but in present study Logistic, Rayleigh and Gamma distribution are used to describe the characteristics of maximum temperature. This paper attempts to determine the best fitted probability distribution of maximum temperature. To check the accuracy of the predicted data using theoretical probability distributions the goodness of fit criteria Z-test used in this paper. According to the goodness-of-fit criteria and from the graphical comparisons it can be said that Logistic distribution provides the best fit for the observed monthly daily mean of maximum temperature data.