{"title":"Yuan-Dollar Real Exchange Rate and the U.S. Real Trade Balance with China: Long-Run Cointegration and Short-Run Dynamic Analysis","authors":"A. Islam","doi":"10.1080/08853908.2021.2008282","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article examines the impact of the yuan-dollar real exchange rate on the U.S. trade deficit with China in the long run as well as in the short run using a novel globalization-augmented empirical model. The long-run estimates are obtained using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration method along with the corresponding short-run dynamics. The longest available annual time-series data with a sample size of 45 years is utilized to conduct the empirical tests. The study finds confirmation of the long-run equilibrium and that the real yuan-dollar real exchange rate plays a strong role consistent with traditional theory. Real income and globalization played strong roles as well.","PeriodicalId":35638,"journal":{"name":"International Trade Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2021-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Trade Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2021.2008282","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
ABSTRACT This article examines the impact of the yuan-dollar real exchange rate on the U.S. trade deficit with China in the long run as well as in the short run using a novel globalization-augmented empirical model. The long-run estimates are obtained using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration method along with the corresponding short-run dynamics. The longest available annual time-series data with a sample size of 45 years is utilized to conduct the empirical tests. The study finds confirmation of the long-run equilibrium and that the real yuan-dollar real exchange rate plays a strong role consistent with traditional theory. Real income and globalization played strong roles as well.
期刊介绍：
The International Trade Journal is a refereed interdisciplinary journal published for the enhancement of research in international trade. Its editorial objective is to provide a forum for the scholarly exchange of research findings in,and significant empirical, conceptual, or theoretical contributions to the field. The International Trade Journal welcomes contributions from researchers in academia as well as practitioners of international trade broadly defined.
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