Business cycle synchronization and African monetary union: A wavelet analysis

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the feasibility of an African monetary union based on the necessary condition of business cycle synchronization. In this regard, we examine the synchronization of growth cycles between five Regional Economic Communities (RECs) that will have to merge to form an African monetary union: the East African Community; the Economic Community of Central African States; the Economic Community of West African States; the Southern African Development Community; and the Arab Maghreb Union. To do this, we use a new continuous wavelet approach. Results show evidence of heterogeneous synchronization across time and horizons between the RECs. Controlling for the influence of some countries' membership in several RECs at the same time, the synchronization landscape does not improve. Overall, our results suggest that business cycle synchronization across the RECs has not yet reached a sufficient level to allow African countries to benefit from a common monetary policy.