Journal of Macroeconomics最新文献

英文中文

Debt service channel for external debt and growth in developing countries 外债的偿债渠道和发展中国家的增长

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2026.103738

Mustafa Kilinc , Cengiz Tunc

This paper investigates the relevance of the “debt service channel” for external debt in developing countries, arguing that this channel exerts a distinct impact on economic activity beyond the effects of external debt levels. To characterize this mechanism, the paper first develops a small open economy real business cycle model featuring an external debt service mechanism. Specifically, the model incorporates a random maturity structure for external debt to demonstrate how debt burden shocks function as a distinct mechanism, independent of credit shocks. The impulse responses show that a rise in the debt service burden is associated with declines in employment, investment, consumption, and output, as economic agents are unable to fully smooth out these shocks due to prevailing budget constraints and risk premia. Empirical analysis for a large sample of developing countries covering the last five decades also produces supportive evidence. Namely, higher levels of external debt service lead to a contraction in output for an extended period, a finding that remains robust across various model specifications. Therefore, this paper establishes the significance of the “debt service channel” and shows its importance for external debt dynamics in developing countries.

本文研究了发展中国家外债的“偿债渠道”的相关性，认为这一渠道对经济活动的影响超出了外债水平的影响。为了刻画这一机制，本文首先建立了一个以对外偿债机制为特征的小型开放经济实体经济周期模型。具体而言，该模型纳入了外债的随机期限结构，以证明债务负担冲击如何作为一种独立于信贷冲击的独特机制发挥作用。冲动反应表明，偿债负担的增加与就业、投资、消费和产出的下降有关，因为由于普遍的预算限制和风险溢价，经济主体无法完全消除这些冲击。对过去50年发展中国家的大量样本进行的实证分析也得出了支持性的证据。也就是说，较高的外债还本付息水平会导致产出在较长时期内收缩，这一发现在各种模型规格中都是强有力的。因此，本文确立了“偿债渠道”的意义，并说明了其对发展中国家外债动态的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Human and physical capital: Welfare and income effects of government spending 人力和物质资本：政府支出对福利和收入的影响

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103737

Alok Kumar

Insufficient physical and human capital are major impediments to development and poverty reduction in low-income countries. Given the financial constraint, should the governments emphasize physical capital or human capital investment and what instruments should they use? This paper addresses these questions using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with human capital and two-sectors: formal and informal. The model is estimated using data from India. Results demonstrate that investment subsidy is the most effective instrument in raising the GDP and aggregate welfare followed by government physical capital investment. However, both these policies mainly benefit the rich. The government investment in schooling and tuition subsidies targeted at poor are the most effective instruments for raising the employment income and welfare of poor. Using government physical capital investment in combination with either government schooling investment or tuition subsidy targeted at poor, the government can raise the GDP and income and welfare of both rich and poor.

物质和人力资本不足是低收入国家发展和减贫的主要障碍。在财政紧张的情况下，政府应该重视物质资本投资还是人力资本投资？应该使用什么工具？本文利用人力资本和正式和非正式两部门的动态随机一般均衡模型来解决这些问题。该模型是使用来自印度的数据估算的。结果表明，投资补贴是提高GDP和社会总福利的最有效手段，其次是政府实物资本投资。然而，这两项政策主要有利于富人。政府对贫困人口的教育投入和学费补贴是提高贫困人口就业、收入和福利的最有效手段。通过政府实物资本投资与政府教育投资或针对贫困人口的学费补贴相结合，既可以提高GDP，也可以提高富人和穷人的收入和福利。

引用次数: 0

Demystifying monetary policy surprises: Fed response to financial conditions and wait and see for new economic data 揭开货币政策意外的神秘面纱：美联储对金融状况的反应，并等待和观察新的经济数据

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103736

Zhengyang Chen

Why are supposedly exogenous monetary policy surprises, measured by changes in short-term financial contracts within short windows around FOMC announcements, partially predicted by pre-meeting economic and financial information? We propose a new explanation: the Federal Reserve targets economic variables by responding primarily to financial conditions while adopting a “wait-and-see” approach to recent economic data. When markets expect the Fed to target economic variables directly, this creates the predictable component of policy surprises. Using daily-frequency economic and financial data from 2000–2019, we find three pieces of supporting evidence: First, the previously documented strong predictors are reflected in financial markets and not in the Fed’s private information. Second, controlling for financial conditions, recent real economic surprises negatively predict policy surprises, which supports the “wait-and-see” hypothesis over a more aggressive response to economic news (Bauer and Swanson, 2023b). Third, financial conditions alone predict policy surprises as effectively as all other documented predictors combined.

为什么所谓的外生货币政策意外（通过FOMC公告前后短窗口内短期金融合约的变化来衡量）在一定程度上可以通过会议前的经济和金融信息来预测？我们提出了一种新的解释：美联储主要通过对金融状况做出反应来瞄准经济变量，同时对最近的经济数据采取“观望”态度。当市场预期美联储将直接针对经济变量时，这就产生了政策意外的可预测成分。利用2000年至2019年的每日经济和金融数据，我们发现了三条支持证据：首先，之前记录的强预测指标反映在金融市场上，而不是美联储的私人信息中。其次，在控制金融条件的情况下，最近的实际经济意外会对政策意外产生负面预测，这支持了“观望”假设，而不是对经济新闻做出更积极的反应（Bauer和Swanson， 2023b）。第三，金融状况本身预测政策意外的效果，与所有其他有记录的预测因素加起来一样有效。

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引用次数: 0

The industrial cost of fixed exchange rate regimes 固定汇率制度的工业成本

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103727

Blaise Gnimassoun , Carl Grekou , Valérie Mignon

Premature deindustrialization in most emerging and developing economies is one of the most striking stylized facts of the recent decades. In this paper, we provide solid empirical evidence supporting that the choice of a fixed exchange rate regime accelerates this phenomenon. Relying on a panel of 146 developed, emerging, and developing countries over the 1974–2019 period, we show that fixed exchange rate regimes have had a negative, significant, and robust effect on the size of the manufacturing sector—developing countries being the most affected by the industrial cost of such a regime. Additional gravity model regressions show that the impact of fixed regimes passes through the trade channel. In particular, this regime has kept countries with low relative productivity in a state of structural dependence on imports of manufactured products to the detriment of the emergence of a strong local manufacturing sector.

在大多数新兴和发展中经济体中，过早的去工业化是近几十年来最引人注目的程式化事实之一。在本文中，我们提供了坚实的经验证据，支持固定汇率制度的选择加速了这一现象。通过对1974-2019年期间146个发达国家、新兴国家和发展中国家的调查，我们发现固定汇率制度对制造业规模产生了负面、显著和强劲的影响——发展中国家受这种制度的工业成本影响最大。额外的重力模型回归表明，固定制度的影响通过贸易渠道传递。特别是，这种制度使相对生产率较低的国家在结构上依赖制成品进口，从而损害了强大的当地制造业部门的出现。

引用次数: 0

Inflation expectations and political polarization: Evidence from the cooperative election study 通胀预期与政治两极分化：来自合作选举研究的证据

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103726

Christina E. Farhart , Ethan Struby

Using a unique, nationally representative survey from the 2022 midterm elections, we investigate the partisan divide in beliefs about inflation. Party identity is predictive of inflation forecasts, as well as stated beliefs about recent inflation and the Federal Reserve’s long-run inflation target. After conditioning on those two variables, the partisan gap in forecasts is about half of the unconditional average difference between Democrats and Republicans. We find that the difference in reported forecasts conditional on nowcasts and long-run beliefs is driven by respondents who have high levels of knowledge about politics and lower levels of (generalized) trust in others. Our findings are consistent with the literature in political psychology that examines the endorsement of conspiracy theories and political misinformation, and imply a sizable portion of the partisan divide in inflation forecasts is attributable to strategic responses to forecast surveys.

通过对2022年中期选举进行的一项独特的、具有全国代表性的调查，我们调查了两党在通胀观念上的分歧。政党身份可以预测通胀预测，以及对近期通胀和美联储（fed）长期通胀目标的看法。在排除这两个变量后，党派预测的差距大约是民主党和共和党之间无条件平均差异的一半。我们发现，基于短时预测和长期信念的报告预测的差异是由对政治有较高知识水平和对他人（普遍）信任水平较低的受访者驱动的。我们的研究结果与政治心理学的文献一致，这些文献研究了阴谋论和政治错误信息的认可，并暗示通货膨胀预测中的党派分歧很大一部分可归因于对预测调查的战略反应。

引用次数: 0

Fiscal multipliers, trend inflation, and endogenous price stickiness: Evidence from the U.S. 财政乘数、趋势通胀和内生价格粘性：来自美国的证据

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103728

Ilya Gulenkov

A remarkably protracted surge in inflation in the U.S. has had a profound impact on the price- and wage-setting behavior. These changes suggest that the economy could have entered a regime characterized by higher trend inflation. While the impact of trend inflation on monetary policy effectiveness is well-studied, the effects on fiscal policy transmission has been largely overlooked. This study analyzes the fiscal transmission under different inflation regimes. The empirical analysis using state-dependent local projections reveals that in the post-WWII U.S. history fiscal multipliers in a high-inflation regime have been larger. This effect is driven by a crowding-in of consumption, which does not happen in the low-inflation state. We rationalize our findings withing a Markov-switching New Keynesian model with endogenous price stickiness and non-separable preferences. The model demonstrates that when different degree of monetary accommodation interacts with the switching mechanism, consumption is crowded-out in a low-inflation regime and crowded-in when trend inflation is high.

美国通胀持续飙升对物价和工资制定行为产生了深远影响。这些变化表明，经济可能已经进入了一个以更高趋势通胀为特征的机制。虽然趋势通货膨胀对货币政策有效性的影响已经得到了充分的研究，但对财政政策传导的影响在很大程度上被忽视了。本文分析了不同通货膨胀制度下的财政传导。使用依赖州的地方预测的实证分析表明，在二战后的美国历史上，高通胀制度下的财政乘数更大。这种效应是由消费的涌入推动的，而这种情况在低通胀状态下是不会发生的。我们在具有内生价格粘性和不可分离偏好的马尔可夫转换新凯恩斯模型中合理化了我们的发现。该模型表明，当不同程度的货币宽松与转换机制相互作用时，消费在低通胀制度下被挤出，在趋势通胀高时被挤入。

引用次数: 0

Consumer inflation expectations and local price changes: Learning from experience 消费者通胀预期与当地物价变动：从经验中学习

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103725

Tomasz Łyziak , Michael Pedersen , Ewa Stanisławska

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the formation of inflation expectations among U.S. consumers by examining the extent to which individuals are influenced by local price fluctuations when reporting their short-term inflation expectations. Using individual-level survey data and a learning-from-experience framework, the analysis shows that expectations are shaped not only by national inflation but also by local inflation experiences. This result, confirmed using inflation data from both Census regions and metropolitan areas, is robust across alternative model specifications and estimation strategies. Interestingly, the influence of local inflation is strongest among first-time survey respondents and diminishes with survey tenure. This tenure effect indicates that expectation formation evolves as consumers become more familiar with the survey, potentially reflecting increased attention to broader economic information. Overall, we identify an additional driver of consumer inflation expectations related to local inflation developments and largely absent from the previous literature that should be controlled for in empirical models of expectation formation.

本文通过研究个人在报告其短期通胀预期时受当地价格波动影响的程度，为美国消费者通胀预期形成的实证文献做出了贡献。利用个人层面的调查数据和从经验中学习的框架，分析表明，预期不仅受到国家通胀的影响，也受到当地通胀经历的影响。这一结果得到了来自人口普查区和大都市地区的通货膨胀数据的证实，在不同的模型规格和估计策略中都是稳健的。有趣的是，当地通货膨胀的影响在首次调查的受访者中最为强烈，并随着调查期限的延长而减弱。这种任期效应表明，随着消费者对调查结果越来越熟悉，预期形成也在演变，这可能反映出消费者对更广泛的经济信息的关注程度有所提高。总体而言，我们确定了与当地通胀发展相关的消费者通胀预期的额外驱动因素，这在以前的文献中基本上是缺失的，应该在预期形成的经验模型中加以控制。

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引用次数: 0

Can fiscal rules improve banking system stability in developing countries? 财政规则能改善发展中国家银行体系的稳定性吗？

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103724

Yacouba Coulibaly , Askandarou Cheik Diallo

This paper investigates the impact of fiscal rule adoption on banking system stability in developing countries. Using a panel of 62 developing economies over the period 1990–2020, we assess whether adopting a fiscal rule contributes to reducing the level of bank nonperforming loans, a key indicator of banking vulnerability. The analysis relies on entropy balancing to ensure covariates balance between treated and control groups. Results indicate that the adoption of fiscal rules significantly reduces the ratio of nonperforming loans, with an average treatment effect of approximately 0.85 percentage points. The study identifies multiple transmission channels—sovereign credit ratings, income inequality reduction, and macroeconomic stabilization—through which fiscal rules strengthen banking stability. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect varies by the type and duration of the rule and by structural financial characteristics. This research contributes to the literature by extending the role of fiscal rules beyond debt and deficit control, framing them as institutional anchors for financial stability in fiscally and economically vulnerable contexts.

本文研究了发展中国家采用财政规则对银行体系稳定性的影响。通过对1990年至2020年期间62个发展中经济体的调查，我们评估了采用财政规则是否有助于降低银行不良贷款水平（银行脆弱性的一个关键指标）。分析依靠熵平衡来确保治疗组和对照组之间的协变量平衡。结果表明，财政规则的采用显著降低了不良贷款率，平均处理效果约为0.85个百分点。该研究确定了多种传导渠道——主权信用评级、减少收入不平等和宏观经济稳定——财政规则通过这些渠道加强了银行业的稳定性。异质性分析表明，影响因规则的类型和持续时间以及结构性金融特征而异。本研究通过将财政规则的作用扩展到债务和赤字控制之外，将其构建为财政和经济脆弱背景下金融稳定的制度支柱，从而为文献做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Time-varying interactions between monetary and housing credit policy 货币和住房信贷政策之间的时变相互作用

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103723

Giacomo Rella

The US federal government has long played a pivotal role in the mortgage market through various agencies, most notably the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). The importance of these agencies in the housing credit policy landscape increased during the 1990s and in the years leading up to the Great Recession. This article examines the time-varying effects of monetary policy on mortgage credit, focusing on the role of housing credit policy from the early 1990s to 2014. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model and high-frequency monetary policy surprises, I show that GSEs’ activity in the secondary mortgage market has shaped the response of mortgage originations to monetary policy shocks. As GSEs became more involved in housing policy, the response of mortgage refinancing originations and GSEs’ mortgage purchases to monetary policy strengthened. This suggests that contractionary monetary policy, by undermining housing policy objectives and increasing profit opportunities from mortgage purchases, may prompt a stronger response from GSEs, which in turn dampens the adverse effects of monetary policy tightening on housing activity.

长期以来，美国联邦政府一直通过各种机构，尤其是政府支持企业（gse），在抵押贷款市场发挥着关键作用。这些机构在住房信贷政策领域的重要性在20世纪90年代和大衰退之前的几年里有所增加。本文考察了货币政策对抵押贷款信贷的时变效应，重点研究了20世纪90年代初至2014年住房信贷政策的作用。使用时变参数向量自回归模型和高频货币政策意外，我表明gse在二级抵押贷款市场的活动塑造了抵押贷款来源对货币政策冲击的反应。随着政府支持企业更多地参与住房政策，抵押贷款再融资发起和政府支持企业购买抵押贷款对货币政策的反应增强。这表明，紧缩的货币政策，通过破坏住房政策目标和增加抵押贷款购买的盈利机会，可能会促使gse做出更强烈的反应，这反过来又会抑制货币政策收紧对住房活动的不利影响。

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Saving behavior and the intergenerational allocation of leisure time 储蓄行为与休闲时间代际分配

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103722

Fabio Cerina , Xavier Raurich

We study how cross-country cultural differences in the intergenerational allocation of leisure time affect savings and working time. To do so, we consider a life-cycle model in which leisure and consumption are complementary and individuals decide on the intertemporal allocation of consumption, on leisure time and on its allocation among individuals of the same generation or of a different one. The latter decision margin determines the equilibrium utility services from leisure that individuals obtain in each life time period. We show that economies in which older individuals obtain higher leisure services have higher savings rates, higher stock of capital per worker and higher fraction of time worked. Using data from the World Value Survey, we provide empirical support to these findings. Our results suggest that cultural differences in leisure allocation play a structural role in shaping cross-country differences in savings and labor supply.

我们研究了在休闲时间代际分配方面的跨国文化差异如何影响储蓄和工作时间。为此，我们考虑了一个生命周期模型，其中休闲和消费是互补的，个人决定消费的跨期分配，休闲时间及其在同代或不同代个人之间的分配。后者的决策边际决定了个体在每个生命周期内从休闲中获得的均衡效用服务。我们表明，老年人获得更多休闲服务的经济体具有更高的储蓄率、更高的人均资本存量和更高的工作时间比例。利用世界价值调查的数据，我们为这些发现提供了实证支持。我们的研究结果表明，休闲分配的文化差异在形成储蓄和劳动力供给的跨国差异方面发挥了结构性作用。

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