Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Accidental Damage to Civil Aircraft Composite Structures

Abstract

In view of the structural accidental events in the ongoing airworthiness stage of civil aircraft, it is necessary to conduct a risk assessment to ensure that the risk level is within an acceptable range. However, the existing models of risk assessment have not effectively dealt with the risk of accidental structural damage due to random failure. This article focuses on probabilistic risk assessment using the Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology (TARAM) of accidental structural damage of civil aircraft. Based on the TARAM and probability reliability integral, a refined failure frequency probability calculation model is established to elaborate on composite structure failure frequency. A case study is analyzed for the outer wing plane of an aircraft having impact damage of composite materials. Finally, results of the risk assessment without correction and risk assessment with correction are presented for detailed visual inspection and general visual inspection.