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{"title":"Decoupling analysis and peak prediction of carbon emission in less developed provinces: A case study of Sichuan province, China","authors":"Lu Chen, Xin Li, Lu Liu, Bei Sun, Xinyi Hu, Minxi Wang","doi":"10.1002/ghg.2200","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>With the increasing severity of climate change, the unevenness of economic development has resulted in the heterogeneity of carbon peaking in different regions. Under the dual-carbon target strategy, the peak research in China's less developed provinces is significant. This study uses the emission factor method to calculate the carbon emission inventory of an economically underdeveloped province (Sichuan) and 15 major cities from 2010 to 2020. The carbon emissions in the Sichuan province showed a fluctuating trend, and the emission intensity decreased year by year. This study analyzes the decoupling effect of carbon emissions and GDP gold content (GDPgc). Sichuan's economy and carbon emissions have not been strongly decoupled. Finally, under three scenarios, it forecasts the peak carbon emissions in Sichuan province. Sichuan province will peak in 2029 (361.74 million tons) under the simultaneous peak scenario. This study provides an important reference for formulating and implementing energy-saving and emission-reduction policies in relatively poor regions. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</p>","PeriodicalId":12796,"journal":{"name":"Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ghg.2200","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
With the increasing severity of climate change, the unevenness of economic development has resulted in the heterogeneity of carbon peaking in different regions. Under the dual-carbon target strategy, the peak research in China's less developed provinces is significant. This study uses the emission factor method to calculate the carbon emission inventory of an economically underdeveloped province (Sichuan) and 15 major cities from 2010 to 2020. The carbon emissions in the Sichuan province showed a fluctuating trend, and the emission intensity decreased year by year. This study analyzes the decoupling effect of carbon emissions and GDP gold content (GDPgc). Sichuan's economy and carbon emissions have not been strongly decoupled. Finally, under three scenarios, it forecasts the peak carbon emissions in Sichuan province. Sichuan province will peak in 2029 (361.74 million tons) under the simultaneous peak scenario. This study provides an important reference for formulating and implementing energy-saving and emission-reduction policies in relatively poor regions. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
欠发达省份碳排放的解耦分析与峰值预测——以四川省为例
随着气候变化的日益严重,经济发展的不均衡性导致了不同地区碳峰值的异质性。在双碳目标战略下,中国欠发达省份的调峰研究具有重要意义。本研究采用排放因子法对经济欠发达省份(四川)及15个主要城市2010 - 2020年的碳排放清单进行了计算。四川省碳排放呈波动趋势,排放强度呈逐年下降趋势。本文分析了碳排放与GDP含金量(GDPgc)的脱钩效应。四川的经济和碳排放并没有完全脱钩。最后,在三种情景下,预测了四川省的碳排放峰值。在同步峰值情景下,四川省将在2029年达到峰值(3.6174亿吨)。本研究为相对贫困地区制定和实施节能减排政策提供了重要参考。©2023化学工业协会和John Wiley &儿子,有限公司
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