To Warn or Not to Warn: Factors Influencing National Weather Service Warning Meteorologists’ Tornado Warning Decisions

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI:10.1175/wcas-d-20-0115.1
Jiyoun Kim, Anita Atwell Seate, B. Liu, Daniel P. Hawblitzel, T. Funk
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Weather warnings are critical risk communication messages because they have the potential to save lives and property during emergencies. However, making warning decisions is challenging. While there have been significant advances in technological weather forecasting, recent research suggests that social factors, including communication, influence warning meteorologists’ decisions to warn. We examine the roles of both scientific and social factors in predicting warning meteorologists’ decisions to warn on tornadoes. To do so, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of National Weather Service forecasters and members of management in the southern and the central regions of the United States, as well as conducted a retrospective data analysis of cross-sectional survey data from the central region Tornado Warning Improvement Project. Results reveal that dependency on radar velocity couplet and a variety of social factors predicted decisions to warn.
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预警与不预警:影响国家气象局预警气象学家龙卷风预警决策的因素
天气警报是关键风险沟通信息,因为它们有可能在紧急情况下拯救生命和财产。然而,做出预警决策是一项挑战。虽然天气预报技术取得了重大进展,但最近的研究表明,包括通信在内的社会因素会影响预警气象学家的预警决定。我们研究了科学和社会因素在预测预警气象学家关于龙卷风预警的决定中的作用。为此,我们对美国国家气象局预报员和美国南部和中部地区的管理层成员进行了横断面调查,并对中部地区龙卷风警报改进项目的横断面调查数据进行了回顾性数据分析。结果表明,对雷达速度耦合和各种社会因素的依赖性预测了预警决策。
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来源期刊
Weather Climate and Society
Weather Climate and Society METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.60%
发文量
95
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather, Climate, and Society (WCAS) publishes research that encompasses economics, policy analysis, political science, history, and institutional, social, and behavioral scholarship relating to weather and climate, including climate change. Contributions must include original social science research, evidence-based analysis, and relevance to the interactions of weather and climate with society.
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