Return–Risk Analysis of Real Estate Tokens: An Asset Class of Its Own

Abstract

This study analyzes the return–risk metrics of real estate security tokens as digital representatives of fractional ownership in physical properties. The author uses approximately 40,000 pricing data points for 180 tokenized properties in the United States between 2019 and 2022 to construct a monthly index. This index is used in various analyses to see whether the tokens’ returns follow the performance of the underlying markets for housing, securitized real estate, stock, and cryptocurrency. The token index shows no clear pattern of similarity to other asset classes and has its own return–risk pattern. The principal component analysis shows that debt and macroeconomic factors are the major drivers and that the crypto market and housing market are of minor importance in explaining variation in returns. This absence of a clear linear relationship with other assets makes real estate tokens attractive as diversifiers in a multiasset portfolio. However, investors looking for an alternative investment vehicle for the real estate asset class cannot rely on tokenized real estate.