On the Bayesian Mixture of Generalized Linear Models with Gamma-Distributed Responses

IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Econometrics Pub Date : 2022-10-04 DOI:10.3390/econometrics10040032
Irwan Susanto, Nur Iriawan, H. Kuswanto
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Abstract

This paper proposes enhanced studies on a model consisting of a finite mixture framework of generalized linear models (GLMs) with gamma-distributed responses estimated using the Bayesian approach coupled with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The log-link function, which relates the mean and linear predictors of the model, is implemented to ensure non-negative values of the predicted gamma-distributed responses. The simulation-based inferential processes related to the Bayesian-MCMC method is carried out using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The performance of proposed model is conducted through two real data applications on the gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity and the annual household income per capita. Graphical posterior predictive checks are carried out to verify the adequacy of the fitted model for the observed data. The predictive accuracy of this model is compared with other Bayesian models using the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC). We find that the Bayesian mixture of GLMs with gamma-distributed responses performs properly when the appropriate prior distri­butions are applied and has better predictive accuracy than the Bayesian mixture of linear regression model and the Bayesian gamma regression model.
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具有分布响应的广义线性模型的贝叶斯混合
本文提出了对一个由广义线性模型(GLM)的有限混合框架组成的模型的增强研究,该模型具有使用贝叶斯方法和马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)方法估计的伽马分布响应。实现了与模型的均值和线性预测因子相关的对数链接函数,以确保预测的伽马分布响应的非负值。使用吉布斯采样器算法进行了与贝叶斯MCMC方法相关的基于模拟的推理过程。通过购买力平价下的人均国内生产总值和人均家庭年收入的两个实际数据应用,对所提出的模型进行了性能分析。进行图形后验预测检查,以验证拟合模型对观测数据的充分性。使用广泛适用的信息准则(WAIC)将该模型的预测精度与其他贝叶斯模型进行了比较。我们发现,具有伽马分布响应的GLM的贝叶斯混合在应用适当的先验分布时表现良好,并且比线性回归模型和贝叶斯伽马回归模型的贝叶斯混合具有更好的预测精度。
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来源期刊
Econometrics
Econometrics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics
CiteScore
2.40
自引率
20.00%
发文量
30
审稿时长
11 weeks
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